Tactical Dogmatism as a Market Inefficiency: Inside Racing Louisville's NWSL Revolution

2026 and we're kicking off x o g on the road. We're going to be traveling guys traveling. And to do it up on opening weekend, I have decided to do a dumb thing. I will be in Washington on the 13th at Rowdy Audi Boston on the 14th for the Boston Legacy debut against Gotham and at BMO for Angel City's game against the Chicago stars on Sunday. Yikes. If you are in any of those markets, be sure to come say hi before the game to Eric. And we plan to try and hit all 16 markets this year. I will be in New Jersey for Gotham FC against the Orlando Pride on Sunday, March 29th and watch this space for more dates to come. In the meantime, if you are a fan of the show, we are doing a big Patreon sale where you can get an annual membership for a big discount. So be sure to use the code in the show notes for that. And we have launched a store. We have to have an official x o g store where you can get all the best merch for the start of the NWSL season and Patreon members get 20% off with an exclusive discount code for that. So those are all the fun little goodies from us. Stay tuned for the show. Hello and welcome to Expected Own Goals. If you don't want to go to Fifth City, you better detour around my town edition. I am your host, Eric Morgan. And I am Evan Davis. Yes, welcome back to NWSL season preview week. And we are talking about none other than racing Louisville, a team with arguably not arguably definitely the smallest market in the entire league, who finally managed to break their ninth place curse and get to the playoffs last year. But can they repeat a lot of activity in the off season, but not necessarily a big name signing, but a lot of interesting pieces to work with. And so we were very excited to have one of our faves, our old buddy, Becky Morgan of what your town rundown podcast back to talk all things racing Louisville. So enjoy that conversation. You know my favorite thing about this conversation. By the way, last year, it was doom and gloom with Becky. And this year, she has to be at least a little happy with how things are. Yeah. And when you can range just a little bit of happiness out of Becky Morgan, boy, you are, you've got golden your pocket. Yeah, enjoy. Normally, when we talk to Becky Morgan, it's usually fire, brimstone, in general, apocalyptic vibes around racing Louisville. So I'm fascinated to hear where she landed back in November when suddenly they made the playoffs and their coach one manager of the year. But she is one of our faves. You can hear her on NWSL this week and the butcher town rundown podcasts. The one on only Becky Morgan, Becky, welcome back. Thank you so much. I'm thrilled to be here. Genuinely thrilled to have you. And it was a year ago, what we were asking questions like, is this team going to exist in two years? And then eight months later, they finally broke the ninth place curse. They finished in seventh and not undeservedly. We're a penalty shoot out away from making it to the second round. And a couple of weeks after that, Bev Yannis is hosting, hoisting the coach of the year trophy at the NWSL awards ceremony. So tell us the story of the 2025 racing Louisville season and how you felt about it. Well, it certainly seemed like it was starting the way I predicted. They did not have a good start. And I think it really speaks to the character of Bev Yannis and the players that after that absolutely abysmal punch in the four to one loss to the San Diego wave. They said, we're we're resetting. We're changing everything. And they managed to catch some momentum and keep it going. And by the time the international break ended and racing had an absolute bear of a schedule with I think five or six games in a row of all top top five teams. They went through and got points on almost every in almost every single game. And we knew that something something really caught there that they had found their identity for the very first time. I think some of my criticisms are still valid. They did it with about the thinnest roster possible. I think I said in the podcast, the everything was going to have to go right for them to do well. And their three rookie signings did work out. You know, despite not really being on anybody's radar, I would say Katie O'Kane certainly wasn't. And then she ended up being almost a day one starter, got a call up to the national team for the first time. I mean, their story really is a team that finally said, Affett, we're going to get our shit together. And they did. I was surprised. And maybe I should be firing Brimston and this one in the hopes that that somehow, you know, repeats the magic of the last season. Everything's horrible, guys. Well, sure. In the world, of course. Well, that that is true. Yeah. Yeah. Do you feel any better about this sort of like a long-term sustainability and of this team? Does this, does this pretend like a Louisville Renaissance? Or are you worried that last year's kind of a blip? Especially now that Bev Yannes has two seasons under a belt. And Caitlin Milby has had what, two full off seasons, others interim or as permanent GM at this point. Yeah, about including being in interim. That's difficult. I think that this season is going to be very telling. They, they had abysmal attendance compared to other clubs last season. And a big part of that is they just didn't do anything. They did very little to make the stadium experience big in any way. And people in the front office would say, well, it has to be natural. We don't want to do anything to help create anything or change the vibes. It's all on the fans to basically do everything. And then they went to their first playoff game against the Washington Spirit and saw everything the Washington Spirit team does to hype up the crowd to like a huge chance. And suddenly said, oh, I guess maybe we should start doing that. So there's actually movement to start doing stuff like that. This season actually hired someone for the game day experience. And so they are at least investing in that way. They started a club called like 502 crew or something. Or if you join it, you always have access to tickets. They're only five dollars. And or to in the standing is stopinal end, you know, the supporters section that they want to fill up. And then you get like other perks and benefits. Or you have the possibility to get them through drawings and stuff like that. So they're actually like suddenly really amping up their fan engagement. And if this stuff pays off, yeah, there's a road towards sustainability. If it doesn't, then I don't see how the team is sustainable. You can see that every single one of their contracts is the deadline at like 2027, 2028. So I think that shows the potential expiration date if things don't turn around. And if John Nees isn't willing to open the checkbook, which even though they had this incredible run, you're right. They did it with essentially the same 14 players gave a take. And this off season is really no difference. There are, it's a lot of players that have been brought in. But as far as like high profile, potentially real impact signings, that's where the questions come in. So let's walk through both who they've lost and who they've gained. Janine Sonas has moved on. Ari Borgis has moved on. Bethany Boss, formerly bosser has moved on. In spectacular fashion. If you play those tic-tocks will live in infamy. And on the other side, you know, we have Quince and McMahon coming over from San Diego, ready to actually put in a full season of work. Rachel Hill from Bay, Macy Hodge from Angel City and and very intriguing college signing at a Georgetown Maya Larger among many others. Where did they lose the most production in the players who left and where are they maybe making some of that ground up in the players that have come in? Hey, I don't know. I feel like their biggest loss is undoubtedly Janine Sonas. I think she was arguably their best player of the season last year in terms of her impact, her ability to move to the back and be an important player, her leadership. She was just impactful the entire season. So she was a very big loss. You know, I love Ari Borgis. I don't think she's as huge a loss. And I think the last season they were able to bring in young players that was able to develop and make extremely impactful. And they are confident that she'll be able to do that again. And you have to remember the racing strategy for a while was to bring in players that they hoped would make a big splash, make a big impact. And they never really panned out. I mean, even going all the way back to like Nadia Nadeem. So I think it's a good strategy, honestly, to abandon that and say, you know what, we can be a place that really, really strong talent that isn't getting minutes like Quincy, like Macy can come over and maybe get some starting minutes very quickly and really make a home in this team. So I think that it's a smart move. But of course, it's a gamble, right? Those players have to pan out. They have to live up to their potential. Yeah, it's a strategy that worked for them more than the other way of chasing big names, big signings. So I'm not displeased. Let's say that. And the other part that seems to be a complete left turn from the way they used to do business. Not a single international roster spot is filled on this roster at the moment. Yeah, that's true. I think the, you know, abolishing the draft really opened up who they could chase. And, you know, instead of having to say, oh, we have to work with only this pool of players, they can chase people that they actually feel fit the culture, fit the team. And I also think that it just, you know, they don't want to be transfused, honestly. So yeah, they very much feel like a team that, and this was really, I think, the success of Bevion as last year, they really feel like a team that had a strong identity and that was defined by their limitations and then playing within side those limitations. Do you feel like, like Bevion as is uniquely well suited to this situation of being in a sort of hamstrung financial position as a coach? I mean, yeah, she certainly seems to be doing a good job with it. I think that maybe a nicer way to say it is she's very good at making the most about with what she has and that she's able to see those limitations and work within them, exactly like you said. You know, she can see her team for what it truly is and design and maximize their ability. And a large part of that is by really devoting a lot of time to developing the culture and the identity of the team, like you said, I think that that pushes them beyond teams that might have broken cultures, but more talent, you know, when you have a lot of young players who are trying to prove themselves for the first time and are completely bought in and they're able, because they're young and healthy still to play that really gritty, almost bullying style that leaves everything on the pitch. So I think that she knows who she has, she knows who the team has to be basically due to their limitations and she's able to work within that space very well. You'll appreciate this when we spoke with James Hawking, the supporting director of the Washington spirit before the championship last year, he said, you know exactly what racing Louisville are going to do and you still can't stop it. Yeah, so it's a real testament. Yeah, it's a real testament to like how strong that identity is. And so let's walk through each line of this group. At NWSL Media Day, we showed Jordan Bloomer some of her data and asked, did you know you were one of the most effective keepers in the league last year? And she quite enthusiastically said, nope. What was it like to watch her last year after Lund went down and do you think she can do it again? Yes, I think she can do it again. I've been waiting waiting patiently for Bloomer's moment when she was a rookie in preseason. I didn't interview with all racing's rookies. And she left such an incredible impression. She had all the swagger, she had all the humor. She has never I think in a day end of her life than anything but Jordan Bloomer. She's a fully realized human being and she loves being a keeper. And I think the only thing that could stop her is as a health issue. She has a bad back. She's had to have back surgery. I don't want to speak that into existence, but it is a concern. But other than that, I mean, no, I think I think she was like the one of the missing ingredients and the sauce that racing needed. Katie Lund, I have a lot of fondness for her. She did a lot for racing. She's not a great communicator. She would be very silent on the back line. Bloomer is anything but she is hyping everybody up. She's shouting. She's getting the crowd involved. And that has been transformational on the back line. Yeah, I want to talk now about that back line, which I think at times was possibly misperceived just because of the number of sort of fluky dropped points Louisville had in games. That back line was kind of low key. One of the better defensive units in the league last year, certainly as far as their ability to deny good goal scoring chances while their team in transition sought really good goal scoring chances. How do you see this back line moving forward? Is it just the story of solidity or do you feel like there's going to be any sort of shakeup that we see coming? No, honestly, I'm really curious to see what happens with it. They had they dealt with a shake up last year when lo and the lay broker collarbone and suddenly Jeanine Becky had to go back there. So I think Bev has done a good job of trying to install in the fact, which I think most successful coaches do that you're more than your position. You know, everybody needs to be able to step up at any moment. And so if they can keep that mentality, they'll do fine. But Aaron, right? And Ellie Jean really were a fantastic center back pairing. And again, Ellie Jean is one of these players who you feel like has just been waiting for her moment, waiting for her moment. And she was giving it and she was she was given her moment and she seized it and did a really phenomenal job this past season. And if racing can get that out of a few more of their new signings, I think they're going to be in in great shape. Winston McMahon, McKenna Morris, Lauren Malay, Courtney Peterson, there's a lot of full-back potential. Shall we say some of which has a great deal of experience with Louisville, others of which are new to the team, but our league veterans and yet more who are coming off of a rookie year injury and now ready to prove themselves, what indications do you have, either from the team or just from what you have been scouting yourself, the depth chart at left and right back is shaping up to be? You know, I really don't know. They've been pretty quiet. I've not been able to see any preseason games, any practices, anything like that. So it's a mystery to me. I think McKenna Morris was signed to be one of the future players in that spot. And unfortunately, injury has helped her from from seizing being one of the starting at her back story, saying, low Malay, I think, has her spot if she's healthy. I don't think that they're going to take it from her. Courtney Peterson, last season seemed to fall more into a substitute. Like, I don't even want to say super sub, but a strong sub and she can sub in either center or or out or back. So I think that there's going to be a little more movement on the wings, at least on the outside than there is in the center. I think the center is going to be pretty solidly air and right, Nelly Jean until someone proves otherwise. Yeah, moving to the midfield, it's Taylor Flint, who I feel like has really come into her own in Louisville and really sets the tone, maybe not just for the midfield, but for the whole team. And then a bunch of question marks about how they orbit around Taylor Flint. How do you see with Ari Borges gone, this midfield functioning? And with Savannah Jamila back. Yeah. And with Sad back. Yeah. She's not though. I last I heard that she still does not have a set return date. Okay. Well, scratch that. Yeah, so I mean, that could change very quickly. But I believe that she still is working her way back, but is not fully back. So I would not count Savannah Demelo into the equation yet. And maybe some of that is mind tricks, maybe maybe she is going to be ready to come back pretty quickly. I don't know, but that's what I've heard. I think Katie O'Kane really, really earned her spot. I think that she plays exactly in the style that racing once she will chase the ball down, no matter what she will hit the ground 50 times. She'll throw other people to the cat 50 times. And you know, she won't stop. She just will not stop. And I think that she is going to take essentially the Demelo slash Borges, but as the eight or the, you know, other point of the double pivot if they play in that style. I suppose moving forward, it would be hard to not talk about the emergence of Kayla Fisher from rough and tumble get under your skin striker to very effective rough and tumble get under your skin striker. Like as much as Katie O'Kane defines this team, it feels like Kayla Fisher was, was really like the guiding force in sort of setting the tone to create a lot of space for maybe more elegant players around her, but also put in a shift last year. What's your read on the attack this year for Louisville? And especially because Kristen Wright officially announced her retirement. Bethany Boss is out the door. It seems like it's Fisher's ship to run. Yeah. I think Fisher is going to be a key component. And I think that she really matured over the season as well. She had that really awful moment in Angel City where she had the three game suspension for pulling Madison Hammond down, fully deserved. And she came back and did not earn any other harsh yellow cards. I'm not saying she didn't get yellows, but they were pretty soft yellows for the most part. So I think if she's gotten that under control, I mean, she plays wildly. She, you know, she's flailing, throwing herself in everything. If she can just take that back a hair, but not to enough to like lose her effectiveness, I mean, she could be absolutely killer for this team. I do think some of the young players might be able to step up. I think that they have a lot of hope for Maya Lardner, who you mentioned earlier. I think that they really want to develop her into their future nine. And, you know, Fisher can also play in the midfield and has played in the midfield. So she has a lot of flexibility there. But I think that Lardner could end up being like the true dedicated nine that racing has been hoping for. We always have a difficult time sorting through college data, obviously, because, you know, Mardner's top lines stats look kind of incredible. And then you have to take a step back and realize, oh, yeah, she played in the big east for Georgetown. And so there was a lot of soft competition she could run numbers up against in 2025. What do you or the racing coaching staff see in Lardner that makes them think she's got the goods to translate to not just in every day pro, but potentially a star every day pro. I mean, this is probably a weak answer, but I think it's it's work ethic and mentality. The first thing that struck everybody about Emma Sears, who is like the emergent racing Louisville star, was the she came in on day one of preseason and beat the speed test for racing. She was the fittest player. She was ready to go and she never dropped that and everybody said, oh, okay, this girl's setting the pace. And I think that they're seeing similar things from from Lardner and the other rookies. Yeah, Emma Sears had maybe a second consecutive breakout season like she was very like she sort of elevated her game another level. The underlying data suggests maybe there was some real over performance there. But like is Emma Sears the focal point in that attack as far as like where the goals are coming from? I think she functions better if she's not entirely the focal point. I mean, we've seen plenty of times last season where, you know, everything had to go through her and teams just collapsed on her and she couldn't get anything done. She's not a two-footed player, so she doesn't have the true dynamism in front of goal. But, you know, other players might have if they can shoot with both their left and their right equally well or at least, you know, somewhat well have a little bit of a balance there. If they can find another piece, and I mean, Kayla Fisher was good about this because I mean, she was just like running like a steamroller through people and then Emma Sears could just kind of sweep in and then score a nice goal. If they could find another focal point, I think for the attack or at least to spread it out a little more, then Sears would be even more effective. So looking at this group of about nine outfield players that they brought in, plus, you know, a few players that we haven't mentioned yet, whether that's Sarah Weber or Ella Haas or whomever might jump to mind, like who among this roster, who we have not focused on in this episode yet, do you feel is got the goods to be impactful this year for Louisville? I think Hodge from Angel City has a lot of potential. I think she showed a lot of potential in Angel City. All my friends that follow Angel City were like, oh, no, not her. Like we really thought that we were going to be able to to use her and help build a team up. And instead, you know, Angel City is going for someone like Ari Borges with a little more experience, but she has not, I think, panned out to be an even player, let's say, Ari Borges, where Hodge still could be developed. She could still grow in a lot of ways and really become a core member of the team. And so I think that there's a lot of hope for her to step in. I think Macy Blackburn as a defender. She texas tech. My other so many rookies now. I can't even keep that straight. Yeah. Has a good amount of potential as well. Yeah. If nothing else, Hodge will continue the batter you quality. Like when I saw that signing, I was like, fits like a glove. Just a perfect match of player persona and team that they are joining. Now, let's play a little armchair GM. You have the ability to add one style of player to this racing Louisville team to help push them on. What position doesn't have to be a specific player, but what position are you adding to to improve this team? I mean, I feel like the answer for all of racing's history has been a true dedicated number nine. I'm actually going to say this is going to be a really weird answer. I'm going to say a good solid backup defensive midfielder. I'm all that defensive midfielder. If Taylor front goes down, who is going to fill her spot? I mean, I guess one of the centerbacks could go and step up, but she's so good and so critical for racing. The things really fall apart when she's not on the pitch. So having a really true solid defensive midfielder backup, someone that could maybe play the eight and the six just evenly well. Maybe Okane could develop into that player. I'm not sure that she's disciplined enough and maybe has the finesse needed. The Taylor Flint has to be the defensive midfielder that works for racing, but honestly, that's my answer. Is Marissa de Grande not that player? As a six? Yeah, that's the question I think. Yeah, I just wonder. I mean, certainly she has gotten a lot less playing time at Louisville than maybe we expected when she came over from Houston. So maybe that answers itself, but I just wonder is like, does she have enough defensive acumen in your mind and maybe she doesn't? No, I think she has a lot of benefit in the in the buildup. She often assists the assistor. I think that she's better, she played dual tens with Savannah de Mello a lot and I think that that's kind of a more natural role for her in eight. Yeah, no, I just remember very early on in her career back in her San Diego days watching Taylor Flint in a game and I was, you know, from a scouting POV directly behind the goal, watching she just always reads the move before the rest of the team. She's just processing the game at a speed that is faster. It was like watching, it was like watching a flock of birds and she changed directions and then everyone else changed directions a split second later and it feels like in Louisville that's actually really being appreciated. So there's your little Taylor Flint love before we get to the question of beyond the loss of Taylor Flint and the nightmare that that would potentially be, if you're a bevian as what is keeping you up at night in advance of this season, what is the nightmare? That's a really good question that I don't have an easy answer for. I know she has said in the past that in her first year, you know, not like she lost sleep constantly because she just knew it wasn't fitting together. She knew that she was doing everything. She was thinking about everything tactically. She was overthinking everything tactically, overthinking every player, every movement, every single thing that happened and that didn't work. So she realized that she needed focus on the culture and she needed to bring the players in on actually like deciding the culture and the non-negotiables, read the great article Dan Lawletta wrote for Equalizer, speaking to her in a couple of players about it. I think she feels a huge weight to make racing a recognized successful team. I think that they've proven they have success. I think what bothers her is that she feels pressure which she shouldn't because this is a front office issue to make this to be a team that people want to play, want to see play. She feels that she needs to do stuff to fill the stands. She feels that she needs to make this a team that's being talked about so it survives. And I think that should not be on her mind, but knowing her, I can't imagine it is not. I mean, I hope that she can at least take some joy in that she wears the shit out of a paracucci loafers at the very least. You know, woman's got drip seventh place last year, the underlying data basically backed up that story. And the American soccer analysis projection pegs them for fifth place in 2026. Becky Morgan, where is racing Louisville finishing in the table come November? I honestly think seven, three, I don't they've had a big loss in sonas. They have a lot of players coming in that have a lot of potential, but I think that they've proven that this is a core of players that want to play for each other and play for each other well. Obviously that could be sunk with a major critical injury, but I do I mean, I think they have the potential to go even higher if everything works out, but as everything has been working, I think that they're a low level playoff team to at worst being a high level playoff contender that doesn't cross the line. For me, I think, you know, initially I felt like because the narrative with Louisville for so many years was just like this ninth place sort of running gag. And then last year there because of the nature of the way the games sort of felt, I think that there was this belief that Louisville actually wasn't as good as they were underlying. I don't think that there were like massive over performances on that squad last year. I actually think that the foundations really solid. I have them six. I think that this is a team that has not really lost a ton has potentially added real value to what they have and has a consistency in their in their roster that probably should benefit them in very meaningful ways. I've been high on level for years and I continue to be smoking what they're selling. So I'm six thumb level. Yeah, it's six for me as well. I think fifth place, the model is just falling head over heels for Emma Sears and why not. But when you think about every line kind of having a critical element to it from Bloomer to Taylor Flint to Sears up top, this is a this is a funny moment in the NWSL right now. And this roster, I just keep looking at it and like, this is a good group. It's like a good team. Yeah, it's a good team. It's like coherent team. That's the thing. It all seems to fit together. And maybe we're going through confirmation bias because we like Beviana's and we saw the success last year. And that was the narrative that Louisville themselves were kind of pushing. But at the same time, they they play the way they say they're going to play. And it got them to seventh place and probably should have gotten them a playoff spot the year before. And a lot of those players are still around and they hit on their prospects last year. If they hit on a couple of them this year, then why not six place? Why not fifth place? Yeah. Six feels really good, especially if like, my alarm approves us wrong. Yeah. Then it's game over. So I think I think the there is there. The sun will come out tomorrow in Louisville, I think. And it's so nice to say that and not feel like you're casting around with blind optimism. So glad everybody is on the same page. Yeah. Also, I think you're exactly right about just like the upper threshold. Maybe the ceilings maybe not a lot higher than that right now without some additions. But the floor is actually like pretty high. And how nice is it that there is actually a team that we're projecting that doesn't have error bars the size of the city of Los Angeles. No, or the state of Massachusetts. Which whatever we, whatever we think about Caitlin Milby or what state she kind of resides in as a GM, they're that level of sort of like low variance solid workman like success is backed up by reality. And so I'm very excited to once again, cheer big perp on. You can it's so much easier to build a team and identify the players you want when you actually have an identity, right? Totally. When you actually know who you're you're trying to be. So I think that they're finally rock solid and that the vibes are good. They have players that are dedicated to being there and have been there for years. And yeah, I think that you're you're going to do much better with your prospects when you know who you are because they spent so much time flailing around and getting players that just absolutely you never got any minutes like Angela Burone and Linda Montallo. Players that I liked but just did not fit. They were nothing. They were not good to have just sitting around doing nothing. You know, at the very least racing is is using all their pieces. And I think that really, really helps the team. A lot of low spending teams who think they want to be competitive, think they just have to find market inefficiencies in areas where data isn't picking up a signal that other teams are recognizing. But maybe having a style of play and just drilling the fuck out of that for a year and a half is itself a market inefficiency for a small market team. And to return to it, Hawkins said a style of play that you can't really do anything about. Even when you know it's coming. Yeah, you can listen to Becky on NWSL this week as well as the butcher town run down and catcher on social media at Becky Morgan. Becky Morgan, you're the absolute best. Thanks so much for being here. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. This is a lot of fun. Well, thank you so much for listening. Be sure to do all the things you're supposed to do with podcasts. Rate us five stars. Drop a kind review in your pod catcher of choice. And follow along with the feed if you haven't done so already. Tell all of your friends about us if they don't know about the show up to this point. And if you want to follow us on social media, you can do so at X own goals. That's the letter X own goals on all social platforms. Keep your eyes out on YouTube, Instagram and TikTok for a lot of cool exclusive video content there. And if you believe we've made an own goal, please email us at xog at x own goals.com. That's the letter xog at the letter x own goals.com looking forward to our next season preview very soon.