🎙️ Copa Independent (World Cup 2026) •September 26, 2026 •⏱️ 22 min

Could this be the end of Man City as we know them?

🎧 Listen to Original Episode →

1. Executive Overview: Core Theses & Key Revelations

The emergency broadcast of the Copa Independent podcast represents a watershed moment in contemporary sports journalism and football governance. Triggered by explosive reporting from David Ornstein of The Athletic and corroborated by insider communications gathered by Chief Football Writer Miguel Delaney, the discussion centered on a revelation of historical magnitude: Manchester City is expected to be found guilty of an overwhelming majority of the 115 financial charges brought against them by the Premier League, with insider estimates pointing toward guilty verdicts on as many as 114 counts.

For over six years—since Der Spiegel published internal emails from the Football Leaks cache in November 2018—the investigation into Manchester City’s financial machinery has hung over English football like a permanent storm cloud. Yet, as Delaney and host Lawrence Oslet established during their analysis, the sheer scale of the anticipated verdict has shattered the consensus expectation within the industry. Rather than a diluted compromise or a minor administrative fine, Premier League prosecutors appear to have secured near-total victory across a structural prosecution that spans 17 seasons of competition.

The central theses and primary revelations articulated during the broadcast establish five core realities for the global football landscape:

  • Unprecedented Prosecutorial Success: Far from being bogged down by legal complexity or outmaneuvered by City's legal counsel, led by Lord Pannick KC, the Premier League’s case has largely held firm. Guilty findings across nearly all charges signal that the League’s independent commission has accepted the core premise: Manchester City systematically distorted its financial disclosures over a sustained period.
  • Absence of Procedural Lifelines: The fundamental reason for the divergence between UEFA's 2020 Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) ruling—which overturned City’s two-year European ban—and the current Premier League proceeding is procedural. UEFA’s prosecution was crippled by five-year time-barring rules. The Premier League’s regulatory framework contains no statute of limitations on financial fraud or non-cooperation, leaving City’s historical operations fully exposed.
  • Immediate and Devastating Sanctions: Sanctions handed down by the independent commission will take immediate effect. Unlike UEFA proceedings where enforcement was stayed pending appeal, any points deduction imposed by the Premier League will be applied instantly to the current league table. Insiders anticipate a points penalty calibrated to force mathematical relegation, alongside the very real regulatory possibility of outright expulsion from the Premier League down to EFL League Two.
  • Existential Threat to Abu Dhabi Ownership: The intersection of guilty verdicts with the statutory powers of the UK’s new Independent Football Regulator (IFR) creates an existential crisis for the Abu Dhabi United Group (ADUG). Findings of false accounting, deceptive corporate reporting, and persistent failure to cooperate violate the core integrity criteria of statutory Owners' and Directors' Tests, potentially rendering Sheikh Mansour’s ownership legally unviable and forcing a mandatory divestment.
  • Systemic Re-Evaluation of Premier League History: The investigation covers the period from 2009 to 2026—a 17-year span representing 48.5% of the Premier League’s entire 35-year history since its inception in 1992. This structural distortion triggers an immediate legitimacy crisis, opening the floodgates for multi-million-pound civil compensation claims from rival clubs and attaching a permanent asterisk to two decades of domestic dominance.

As Delaney emphasized throughout the discussion, football has entered genuine uncharted territory. The dimensions of this case extend beyond pitch tactics or managerial legacies; they touch the foundational integrity of state-backed sovereign wealth within professional sport.

2. Context & Background: The Landscape Leading to This Conversation

To fully grasp the magnitude of the Copa Independent emergency pod, one must trace the decade-long regulatory struggle between Manchester City’s executive leadership and football’s governing bodies. The genesis of the current crisis dates back to November 2018, when Portuguese hacker Rui Pinto leaked millions of internal documents via Der Spiegel under the banner of Football Leaks. The emails appeared to show senior Manchester City executives discussing methods to circumvent UEFA Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations by routing state equity funding from Abu Dhabi through shell entities disguised as independent commercial sponsorship deals with UAE firms such as Etihad Airways and Etisalat.

The publication of those documents prompted two parallel investigations: one by UEFA’s Club Financial Control Body (CFCB) and another by the Premier League. UEFA acted swiftly, issuing a two-year ban from European competitions and a €30 million fine in February 2020. However, in July 2020, the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) overturned the European ban on appeal in a 2-1 decision, reducing the fine to €10 million solely for non-cooperation. That outcome created a widespread perception of invincibility surrounding City’s legal defense team, leading many observers to assume that Premier League charges would meet a similar fate.

Regulatory Dimension UEFA CFCB Proceeding (2020) Premier League Commission (2023–2026)
Statute of Limitations Strict 5-year time-barring rule under UEFA regulations. No statute of limitations; covers evidence from 2009 onward.
Appeal Mechanism External appeal to Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). Internal Premier League Appeal Panel; no CAS jurisdiction.
Scope of Investigation Narrow FFP compliance window (2012–2016). 115+ charges across reporting, manager/player contracts, PSR, and non-cooperation (2009–2026).
Enforcement Timing Sanctions stayed during CAS appeal process. Sanctions take immediate effect upon Commission declaration.
Statutory Oversight None (Private sports governing body rules). Direct intersection with UK Independent Football Regulator (IFR) statutory powers.

That assumption ignored fundamental differences between UEFA and Premier League jurisprudence. Premier League rules contain no time-barring clauses. When the Premier League formally charged Manchester City in February 2023 with 115 distinct regulatory breaches, it built a comprehensive prosecution stretching from the 2009/10 season through 2017/18, alongside ongoing charges of non-cooperation running up to the present day.

Following a secret 10-week hearing before an independent commission chaired by Lord Shepherd KC that concluded in December 2024, the football world entered a protracted waiting period. Periodic rumors flared up during international breaks, but as Delaney detailed, the tip-offs received on the morning of the broadcast represented a definitive shift. The Premier League’s refusal to issue routine denials, combined with executive-level chatter across top-flight clubs, signaled that the long-awaited written verdict was finally dropping.

Furthermore, the macroeconomic and political environment surrounding European football has transformed dramatically since the investigation began. The collapse of the European Super League project in 2021 forced the UK Government to introduce the Football Governance Bill, establishing an Independent Football Regulator (IFR). Concurrently, global energy market volatility and evolving sovereign wealth deployment strategies from Gulf states have altered the broader geopolitical framing. Manchester City is no longer operating in a self-regulated vacuum; it is subject to statutory accountability in a landscape that demands financial transparency.

3. Deep-Dive Thematic Breakdown

3.1. The Legal Mechanics: 114 Guilty Verdicts and the Absence of Time-Barring

The primary core of the Copa Independent discussion focused on the legal framework underpinning the anticipated guilty verdicts. The prosecution brought by the Premier League was structured into four major categories:

  • False Financial Reporting (2009/10 to 2017/18): Requirements under Premier League rules to provide accurate, true, and fair financial statements regarding club revenue, operating costs, and commercial sponsorship values.
  • Executive & Player Remuneration Disclosures: Allegations of secret secondary contract arrangements, most notably involving former manager Roberto Mancini receiving shadow payments via a consultancy agreement with Al Jazira in Abu Dhabi, alongside unrecorded image-rights payments to key players.
  • Compliance with UEFA FFP & Premier League PSR Rules: Artificially inflating commercial revenue streams through owner-backed subsidies to pass profitability metrics.
  • Failure to Cooperate (2018 to Present): Systemic refusal to provide audited accounts, internal communications, and witness statements to Premier League investigators over a seven-year period.

As Delaney explained, City’s primary defense strategy relied heavily on the precedent set at CAS in 2020. However, the legal reality in domestic arbitration proved far harsher. At CAS, key emails were ruled inadmissible or time-barred because they fell outside UEFA’s five-year prosecution window. The Premier League’s independent commission operated under private contract law without temporal restrictions. Free to examine evidence spanning back to 2009, the commission concluded that the evidentiary chain established a pattern of deliberate financial misrepresentation.

Moreover, Delaney noted that City’s persistent failure to cooperate with investigators severely undermined any defense strategy. In domestic arbitration, an arbitrary refusal to provide requested financial documentation creates an adverse inference. By obstructing the Premier League’s inquiry for years, City stripped away any possibility of leniency or benefit of the doubt, making comprehensive guilty verdicts on almost all counts the logical legal outcome.

3.2. Sanction Severity: Points Deductions, EFL Expulsion, and Financial Penalties

With an estimated 114 guilty verdicts anticipated, the discussion turned to the severity of penalties. The Premier League’s judicial framework grants the independent commission unlimited discretionary power regarding sanctions under Rule W.51. To contextualize the potential penalties, Delaney and Oslet referenced recent disciplinary benchmarks established during the 2023/24 season:

"It feels like it would have to be, at the very least, a points deduction that mathematically would result in relegation... People in football are already going beyond that and talking about whether expulsion is necessary." — Miguel Delaney

Consider the regulatory precedents: Everton suffered an initial 10-point deduction (reduced to 6 on appeal) for a single PSR breach representing an overspend of approximately £19.5 million. Nottingham Forest received a 4-point deduction for an overspend of £34.5 million over a single three-year monitoring window. Those cases involved single, admitted infractions without fraudulent intent or non-cooperation.

By contrast, Manchester City’s prosecution encompasses over a decade of intentional financial distortion across dozens of accounts. A simple linear extrapolation demonstrates that a proportional points penalty would easily reach 30 to 50 points. Applied immediately to the current season table, a 40-point deduction would instantly place City on negative points (e.g., dropping from 12 points to -28 points), making mathematical relegation an absolute certainty before the season concludes.

However, as Delaney disclosed, executive discussions within English football extend beyond relegation. The commission possesses the authority to enforce outright expulsion from the Premier League. Should expulsion occur, Manchester City would forfeit its shareholder license in the Premier League. The club would be forced to petition the English Football League (EFL) for entry into League Two—the fourth tier of English football—mirroring the historical demotions seen in Italian football following the Calciopoli scandal in 2006.

Financial penalties will similarly break all historic records. While Chelsea agreed to a £10.75 million fine with UEFA in 2023 for self-reported historical financial reporting irregularities under Roman Abramovich, City’s total financial penalty—combining punitive fines, disgorgement of prize money, and full reimbursement of the Premier League’s legal expenses—is expected to run into hundreds of millions of pounds.

3.3. State Ownership on Trial: The Statutory Power of the Independent Football Regulator

One of the most profound insights raised during the podcast is how this verdict intersects with the broader political governance of English sport. The timing of the case coincides with the formal implementation of the UK Independent Football Regulator (IFR), established under statutory legislation to oversee club financial sustainability, corporate governance, and owner suitability.

Under the IFR’s statutory framework, owners and directors of professional football clubs must satisfy rigorous, ongoing integrity standards. A formal finding by an independent judicial commission that Manchester City’s executive leadership submitted false financial accounts, concealed manager and player payments, and stonewalled regulatory inquiries directly violates statutory integrity rules.

Delaney noted that high-level conversations within football executive circles have raised the real possibility of a forced corporate sale of Manchester City. If senior Abu Dhabi figures—including Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak or ultimate owner Sheikh Mansour—are deemed to have overseen or authorized a decade of financial deception, the Independent Football Regulator possesses the statutory authority to revoke their operational licenses or mandate individual disqualifications.

This dynamic transforms the case from a sporting dispute into a sovereign investment crisis. Faced with global energy shifts, reputational damage, and persistent statutory regulatory intervention, the Abu Dhabi United Group may determine that retaining ownership of Manchester City under strict regulatory restrictions is no longer viable, potentially precipitating an abrupt exit from English football.

3.4. Roster Disintegration: Contractual Escape Clauses, Managerial Exit, and Asset Flight

The operational and sporting ramifications of immediate sanctions will ripple through Manchester City’s playing squad and coaching staff. A central point of analysis focused on manager Pep Guardiola. Guardiola has repeatedly asserted over his tenure that he was assured by City’s board of their absolute innocence, famously declaring that if he were lied to, he would leave the club immediately.

Delaney highlighted that Guardiola’s contract situation and public signaling point toward a clean departure before the full weight of sanctions takes effect. Leaving the club allows Guardiola to protect his personal coaching legacy, avoiding the necessity of fielding press questions on systemic financial fraud or managing a squad in a relegation scrap or EFL lower-tier campaign.

For the playing squad, the situation presents legal and structural complexity. Delaney drew a sharp distinction between two categories of players within the squad:

  • Pre-February 2023 Signings: Players who joined before the formal announcement of Premier League charges. These individuals signed under the assumption that the club was operating legally within top-flight rules.
  • Post-February 2023 Signings: Players acquired after the charges were made public (e.g., Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, Matheus Nunes, and recent contract extenders like Erling Haaland).

Sports employment lawyers interviewed by Delaney suggest that player agents representing top international talent—such as Enzo Fernandez or Erling Haaland—may have negotiated explicit contractual clauses covering worst-case regulatory outcomes. Even in the absence of explicit relegation release clauses, an immediate points deduction leading to demotion or EFL expulsion would constitute a fundamental breach of contract by the employer. Under employment law, players could argue that the club failed in its duty of good faith, enabling squad members to unilaterally terminate their contracts or demand immediate transfers, precipitating an unprecedented flight of star assets.

3.5. Retrospective Justice & The Commercial Avalanche of Civil Litigation

The final thematic pillar of the broadcast addressed the vast, complex ecosystem of retrospective justice and civil litigation. Lawrence Oslet pointed out that the investigation covers 17 seasons from 2009 to 2026—representing almost half of the Premier League’s entire 35-year existence since 1992.

"This investigation covers a period from 2009 to 2026. That is 17 years. That is half the Premier League's history." — Lawrence Oslet

During this 17-year era, Manchester City won eight Premier League titles, multiple FA Cups, League Cups, and a UEFA Champions League title. If those achievements were constructed on systematic financial misrepresentation that allowed City to stockpile talent beyond legal financial limits, the legitimacy of modern English football is fundamentally compromised.

While the Premier League has historically resisted retroactively stripping titles or reawarding trophies to runners-up (such as Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal), Delaney emphasized that public perception cannot be controlled by administrative decrees. In the minds of supporters, rival executives, and historians, an indelible asterisk will be permanently affixed to City’s title-winning era.

Furthermore, a guilty verdict opens the legal gateway for massive civil litigation. Rival Premier League clubs previously submitted formal legal reservations to preserve their rights to claim financial compensation. Clubs that missed out on Premier League titles, Champions League qualification slots, or suffered relegation due to City’s inflated performance possess clear grounds to sue for lost broadcast distribution money, prize funds, commercial bonuses, and gate receipts. The cumulative civil claims brought by clubs like Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur could easily top £1 billion, creating a legal catastrophe for City Football Group.

4. Speaker Perspectives & Analytical Contrast

The dialogue between host Lawrence Oslet and Chief Football Writer Miguel Delaney provided a compelling study in investigative journalism methodology, offering distinct lenses through which to evaluate breaking sports news.

Miguel Delaney approached the conversation from the perspective of an investigative beat reporter whose persistent sourcing over years provided direct access to executive rooms. His tone was analytical, cautious, yet unsparing in assessing the legal reality. Delaney detailed his morning workflow: receiving early tips, cross-referencing information with senior club executives, analyzing the strategic silence of Premier League communications, and evaluating the legal mechanics of private arbitration versus CAS jurisprudence. Delaney’s primary contribution was breaking down why the Premier League’s legal framework rendered City vulnerable, emphasizing that the absence of time-barring and the inclusion of non-cooperation charges created an unassailable prosecution case.

Lawrence Oslet provided the pitchside, media-room perspective, capturing the immediate human and institutional reaction to breaking news. Oslet recounted being present in the press room at Tottenham Hotspur’s training ground during an England national team press conference featuring Harry Kane. He described the physical sensation in the room—the sudden pinging of WhatsApp notifications, the whispered conversations between journalists, and the surreal juxtaposition of Matt Law asking Harry Kane lighthearted questions about Oasis concerts while the biggest legal story in sports history broke on Twitter via David Ornstein.

The contrast between Delaney and Oslet enriched the analysis. While Delaney focused on legal precedents, statutory regulator powers, and contractual release mechanisms, Oslet continually grounded the discussion in historical proportions—performing real-time mental math to highlight that 17 seasons of investigation out of 35 Premier League years represents nearly 50% of modern English top-flight history. Their consensus was total on the immediate impact of sanctions, though Delaney expressed greater confidence in the likelihood of statutory regulatory intervention forcing executive restructuring or an eventual club sale.

5. Strategic & Industry Implications

The impending verdict against Manchester City will trigger structural shifts across global football finance, multi-club ownership models, and international sports business strategy.

First, the verdict exposes severe vulnerabilities within the City Football Group (CFG) multi-club system. CFG operates a global network of satellite clubs—including Girona FC in Spain, New York City FC in Major League Soccer, Melbourne City in Australia, and Mumbai City in India—anchored by Manchester City as the flagship revenue generator and brand hub. A catastrophic financial penalty, combined with forced relegation or divestment at the mother club, will sever the financial and operational synergies that sustain the network. Sponsors who signed global deals with CFG primarily for Premier League exposure will invoke termination clauses, imperiling the financial stability of satellite clubs across global jurisdictions.

Second, this case establishes a definitive end to the era of disguised sovereign wealth subsidies in European football. For over a decade, state-backed entities tested the boundaries of sports regulation by utilizing related-party transactions, inflated commercial sponsorships, and shadow offshore contracts to bypass financial fair play rules. A decisive legal victory for the Premier League proves that domestic leagues can successfully police state-backed capital when regulatory rules are free from restrictive time-barring clauses. This outcome will force other sovereign-backed clubs to strictly align their commercial reporting with verified Fair Market Value (FMV) standards.

Third, the Premier League will experience an immediate competitive rebalancing. The removal of Manchester City from title contention and European qualification slots opens up competitive space for traditional powerhouse clubs and ambitious mid-tier teams. The redistribution of Champions League broadcast revenues and domestic prize funds will recalibrate financial flows across the top flight, altering transfer market dynamics for seasons to come.

6. Looking Ahead: Unresolved Questions & Next Milestones

As the football world awaits the formal release of the independent commission’s written judgment, several critical procedural milestones and operational metrics must be monitored:

  1. Publication of the Written Judgment: The independent commission chaired by Lord Shepherd KC will release a comprehensive written report detailing the exact findings for each of the 115+ charges. Given the legal complexity and volume of evidence, this document is expected to span hundreds of pages, providing definitive legal detail on secret contracts, sponsorship valuations, and obstruction findings.
  2. The Sanction Hearing: Following the verdict publication, a dedicated sanction hearing will take place to determine the precise penalties. The commission will decide whether to enforce a pure points deduction (e.g., 40–50 points), an immediate demotion, or total expulsion under Rule W.51, along with the precise financial fine structure.
  3. Appeals Process & High Court Challenges: Manchester City will undoubtedly exhaust all legal avenues of appeal. Under Premier League rules, appeals are heard by an internal Premier League Appeal Panel, not CAS. City’s legal counsel may attempt to seek a Judicial Review in the UK High Court; however, English courts historically maintain an extremely high threshold for interfering with private arbitral decisions, making a successful judicial override highly improbable.
  4. EFL Membership Application: In the event of Premier League expulsion, City must formally petition the English Football League board for entry into League Two. The EFL board and member clubs would face unprecedented governance decisions regarding scheduling, stadium capacity, broadcast rights allocations, and financial fair play monitoring for a fourth-tier club possessing world-class infrastructure.
  5. Roster & Commercial Capital Tracking: Essential operational indicators to track over the next 6 to 12 months include:
    • Player transfer valuations and contract termination notices filed with FIFA.
    • Commercial sponsor exit clause activations (e.g., Etihad Airways, Puma, OKX).
    • Statutory enforcement actions initiated by the UK Independent Football Regulator regarding owner integrity compliance.
    • Civil lawsuit filings submitted by rival Premier League clubs in the High Court.

The emergency episode of Copa Independent did not merely cover a breaking news event; it documented the opening chapter of the most consequential legal and structural transformation in modern sports history. Manchester City’s decade-long financial experiment has met its regulatory reckoning, and the landscape of world football will never be the same.

💬 Key Quotes & Speaker Breakdown

Manchester City 115 charges

"The majority of the charges are expected to come in as guilty verdicts essentially when they finally are announced."

— Miguel Delaney

"We are really on uncharted territory here. This is certainly one of the biggest stories in world football history, given the dimensions of this."

— Miguel Delaney

"I think there was surprise that people didn't expect this outcome, and I think there was also a degree of relief that this has been hanging over football for so long."

— Miguel Delaney

Manchester City ownership

"If everything falls into place for the Premier League, this could see the end of Abu Dhabi ownership of Manchester City."

— Miguel Delaney

Manchester City potential sanctions

"It feels like it would have to be, at the very least, a points deduction that mathematically would result in relegation."

— Miguel Delaney

"The sanctions would be immediate and an appeal would have to be overturned later, which is a bit like the UEFA case."

— Miguel Delaney

"Failing to cooperate with the investigation is going to sort of misguide any possibility of leniency in this punishment."

— Lawrence Oslet

Premier League title race

"Once you have this anticipated outcome, the discussion around stripping titles changes because we are talking about a good chunk of modern Premier League history."

— Miguel Delaney

Premier League history

"This investigation covers a period from 2009 to 2026. That is 17 years. That is half the Premier League's history."

— Lawrence Oslet
📜 View Full Episode Verbatim Transcript 23,681 characters
Hello, welcome to Copper Independent, the independence football podcast. I'm Lawrence Oslet and I'm joined by Chief Football writer Miguel Delaney. Hello, Migs. Hello. For an impromptu pod after the news today, the Manchester City will be found guilty of almost all of the 115 charges brought against them by the Premier League. Miguel, you actually messaged our team this morning saying he thought today might be D-Day and it feels that kind of seismic and football terms are kind of where were you moment when this was all revealed, how was your day unfolded without sort of revealing your sources, tell us how it's kind of gone for you. In classic circumstances, it was supposed to be a day off, of course, always, in fact, you know, all over again, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, relatively early in the day though, I was told that it could be coming. And there have been a few murmurs over the previous 24 hours. And look, you always take this sort of a pinch of salt because to be honest, since the hearing concluded in December of 2024, it's felt like every single international break has been a flare up. And actually, fun enough, the one that felt closest, at least emotionally in the way people were talking, was Easter 2025. Obviously, we're a long way past Easter 2025 and there's been a lot of international breaks in between. And because of that, it did mean you're kind of slightly in your, every time, every time it came, there was always a room or all the time, it's coming soon, it's coming soon. Well, once I got that tip off this morning, immediately started messaging around people within clubs and it did feel already this was more substantial than usual. And like an executive, a Premier League club, I should straight back and say, yeah, there's a lot of talk. It's about to drop. A message of the Premier League, they just said they couldn't comment on the process because it's still subject to, it's still a private and confidential process. And that felt a little bit significant because, I mean, sometimes, like, we must be stressed apparently, we're just going to blank as they always are. But sometimes these situations, even if the Premier League won't comment, you do hear elsewhere from within the Premier League that, you know, it won't be coming soon. And it's kind of feeling built and built and built and it was a bit of back and forward to talk about why else was going to be released or like whether or sorry, with the rudder kind of issues being discussed and people were confusing it. And then we have to give him credit. It was David Ornstein of the athletic who reported this news data. Suppose everyone has been waiting almost eight years for it because this does stretch back to November 2018 and their speagles publication of football leagues, which, you know, demanded a Premier League investigation. And from that, yeah, it's been, it's, it's, as journalists obviously have to cover it so much of this story, it's quite, it's quite strange when something you've been expecting for so long, suddenly has this development. But yeah, it's been an odd but very busy day. Yeah, I was, so I was in the, I was at Tottenham Hotspur training ground where England were conducting their media duties today. I had just snuck into the front of Harry Kane's press conference and my phones were pinged from WhatsApp, went off and had a quick glance down and saw the David Ornstein's tweet had just gone out. And I just showed it to a couple of colleagues around me and just, you could just feel that little, you know, that little murmur in a quiet room, you can feel it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So I've had that before and suddenly we, we've got to get out his media conference. Yeah. Yeah. We're stuck here. Was Harry asked? No, he was. I actually thought, um, because the journalist beside me, which was a data graph's Matt Law, then sort of a moment later, after we'd, after I kind of showed him, it just took the mic and I thought he might ask about it. But actually he asked a completely sort of lighthearted question about whether or not Harry Kane wants to take the England players to see Oasis in next summer. So I mean, I guess it would have been a little bit unfair to ask Harry Kane about it. Yeah. It's a line to just jump on. Yeah, yeah. Not even a Premier League player. I mean, what is it? Suddenly, like, Harry, look, one of the reasons Harry Kane left Tottenham was because he couldn't fulfill his career there. And that was like, he would have, he would, well, he would feasibly have a medal given that although the investigation only covered the years 2009 to 2018, that everything that followed after that was obviously built on what happened. Yeah. And so even if kind of those seasons don't come under kind of what the Premier League is going to consider, obviously, pretty much history has changed through that way. There are implications for so many people and so much of the league. So we'll get onto that very shortly. So just to summarize, 114 of the 115 charges were expected. So I must clarify what was put to me. I wasn't given a number. So I was just said to me that I was basically almost all of the charges. And I suppose that's significant because it was originally 115. And then it became 129, 130. So that's what that's what was said to me. So I just clarified that. So the majority of the charges are expected to come in as guilty verdicts essentially when they, when they finally are announced gone. And we should stress that we certainly have released a statement, which as they say, they've given this as an ongoing process, which I think it is very significant as us feel that the Premier League haven't actually released a statement yet. Yeah. We're just going off the reporting and sourcing. But city obviously pointed the process being ongoing and that they stick by their February 2023 stands, which is they're insisting on their innocence. So we're also waiting for that commission report itself, obviously, which is absolutely enormous. I imagine given the amount of charges and the amount of detail and the amount of time that's gone into this, that will presumably come with a Premier League statement. And we won't know the sanctions for a little while yet either that will be a sanction hearing. Yeah. Maybe a hearing in itself. So we don't know exactly what that will be. I mean, what, first of all, before we get into all the ramifications and what's going to come next, Miguel? I mean, what have the reaction been from people you've spoken to in the game today? So outside city, obviously, the response has been to be honest, mostly shocked. I mean, like, when you started sending the message around, obviously, what you mostly got back was, well, and I think most of all, there are surprise at the strength of the anticipated outcome, because one of the discussions in all of this was like for years, especially the longer, longer talk, it felt like whatever kind of legal case was the Premier League was, sorry, whatever strategy or process that led to the Premier League, there was maybe a miscalculation to be so many charges that would have been better off simplifying it. I think because there were so many charges, there was a risk, especially in the context of the legal power that Manchester City were able to deploy, given, obviously, they are owned by one of the most senior royalty figures in Abu Dhabi. So I think there was surprise that people didn't expect this outcome, and I think there was also a degree of relief that this has been hanging over football for so long. It's the first significant step in the process we've had in almost two years. And the last thing that I can step was not yet significant in terms of kind of pointing to an outcome, given it was just kind of the end of the hearing. But relief, I suppose, the end is inside, even if it's still far away, but also, I suppose, if, and look, who knows how an appeal goes, at the moment, everyone saw a bit of victory for the Premier League, naturally. And like I've, I've just gone a lot away, I think, look, both of them are huge, but both potential outcomes are huge, or even say even some sort of settlement say that people have anticipated for a long time would have been significant. But this probably, at least as regards the Premier League itself, the implications of potential upheaval aren't as large. It certainly feels like, rather than talking about repercussions for the Premier League as a whole, we're talking about potential repercussions for city. And are you surprised by this? Given you've been covering this for years now, McGell, and you've been really in the weeds with it and speaking to a lot of people around the story, you're surprised that this verdict has come today, and it's been so kind of almost unanimous when it comes to the verdicts and how many of them have been guilty. So you just look at my, my, as you can imagine, my phone has been hopping all day. It's not a call coming through there. So just in terms of suppose the way we had weighed up like the kind of, obviously there was so much kind of forced about city's legal team, Lord Panic, and he is seen as a very good lawyer in terms of appeals. From that, I'm maybe surprised that it looks close to, I'm sorry, it's anticipated to be close to a total victory for the Premier League in terms of the charge at this stage of the process. Having covered, say, the kind of the previous UEFA case and the CASS case, what always felt like the Premier League had in its favor here was ultimately the primary reason that the UEFA outcome was overturned by CASS was because of technicalities about the, about such limitations that never applied to the Premier League. And it was from that it felt that this was potentially always a logical outcome. So from that perspective, I'm not surprised. So that was the case that city actually successfully appealed in the court of arbitration for sports to do a time-barring, wasn't it? Yeah. So some of that came down to stuff like, you know, what was relevant to the process was a date of submission or data payment because I had to fall inside a five-year period. And it came down to some re-technical arguments and also then to a vote in the vote in what like the case it was two against one in that panel. And obviously none of that applied here because there was no statute of limitations as regards the, as regards that evidence. And presumably the owners now of city are going to fight tooth and nail just as they did there. Obviously this may not be on the same grounds or technical grounds, but they're going to fight, they're going to, we know they're going to appeal. And potentially this is existential for for Abu Dhabi group owning Manchester City because if they are found to be guilty for all these many financial breaches, they are then just by definition breached in breach of the new football regulators rules around owners and directors and executives and being honest and they're kind of integrity policy now that you have to pass in order to run a football club. So potentially this could, if everything falls into place for the Premier League, see the end of Abu Dhabi ownership of Manchester City. Do you see that potentially being an outcome down the road? I mean, that points to the scale of this case, isn't it actually because it's gone on so long that one massive change is actually in the time since football leaks, we've had the super league crisis and the super league crisis, basically necessitated or we got quite over forced the introduction of an independent football regulator, which now has statutory powers. And I must say before we came on to do the podcast, look, I've been talking to people in football about this all day, someone did raise to me a bit the possibility of a potential sale. So yeah, I think that could be an outcome, especially look also in the time since the world has changed. Like suddenly we've got an energy crisis. Are the, are the, the Gulf powers, the Gulf oil powers, they're going to be spending money in the same way again, we've already seen, seen things stripped back. But look, I mean, that's, that's another element of discussion. I mean, as regards the most immediate implications, like even as regards an appeal, so before I came on, a lawyer pointed this out to me, that for years throughout this process, it suited city for there to be delays because obviously they could kind of pretty much practice as normal. And like I could say, the players like we expect victory, like local Pep Guardiola said over the years, whereas now there's been, or sorry, now we anticipate one specific outcome. That's changed. So like suddenly, if the, if the delay goes on four or five years, are city able to convince players to call me the same way again, I can look, if they say, say that we expect to win an appeal, would that have, if it gets to that, would that have the same persuasiveness? And then like, as you say, we kind of, we get into potential, so I mean, this is another thing about the scale of it and the shock people have felt. If the victory is as complete, and again, we wait, we wait to find details of primarily statements, and it's so strong that we talk, we, like we're talking about the strongest possible possible punishments, especially given the precedent of the Everton and Forest points deductions, it feels like it would have to be, at the very least, a points deduction that mathematically would have to bring that would result in relegation. But people are all in football, as they have been for the past few years, are already going beyond that and talking about whether expulsion is necessary and expulsion, obviously, that would be, that wouldn't just be kind of the equivalent of relegation, they'd be out of the Premier League and would have to apply to the AFL to get into League 2, essentially. But then as you say, no, no, we're like, we've got a total new paradigm here as you to the independent football regulator and how they have to look into the conductive owners and owners that, like, the suitability of owners, and given what this case would represent, obviously, it would come under potentially the statutory powers of the regulator and we could be talking about a forest sale, at the very least, you'd think that the regulator could push for key individuals to have to be removed from the club, but this is the level we're talking about here, because let's remember, the entire case ultimately comes down to breaches of financial rules over several occasions, but also the submission of false accounts. Yeah, and also the element of failing to cooperate with the investigation, I think, is going to sort of misguide any possibility of leniency in this punishment, right? Yeah, and let's not forget, as well, that we need, like, for a long time, the anticipation was that they would be able to illustrate, they were able to prove they weren't guilty of a lot of the charges, but that they wouldn't be able to get off cooperation or lack of cooperation because of what that, because it would be evident to the Premier League, obviously, and also then, just the next stage of that, of what lack of cooperation says, and those people that still believe that the cash shouldn't have been overturned in the way it was, because of precisely that, they're the refusal to cooperate. And this is a tough, yes, tough to speculate on exactly what the sanctions will be, but presumably it's going to be a huge fine involved because, I mean, we saw with Chelsea, which was a case where they self reported a lot of the, the misdemeanors under the Abramovich era, they ended up with fines totaling about 10.75 million, I think it was, I mean, you would just think based on that rough precedent that this will be a much, much heavier fine. And then, as you say, a point sanction should be, we would imagine, enormous. Do you envisage, I know, there's going to be a appeal, we still haven't got the details and then got a whole sanction hearing to follow. So difficult to speculate, but do you envisage a situation where man's city have any possibility of winning the Premier League this season? But is that a very interesting question that tells us, say, I mean, I think it is anticipated that the sanctions would be immediate and that an appeal, they'd have to be overturned later, which is a bit like the UEFA case, say. But imagine if, if they're in a situation where they still won the Premier League with this hanging over it, because again, we're at a completely different stage. And it does, it potentially plunges English football into a crisis in that sense, a bit of a legitimacy crisis in that if we are still waiting, like, because as I say, it's different to what's come before because we are going to have this anticipated outcome. And what, what if they win the league in this context? Well, what will that say? And so, and this is one thing. So, I touched on this in the piece I did for the independent, as someone in football sets me, we are really on a chart of territory here. And there's so many strands and subplots and themes. I mean, like, the timing of Pequardiola's, I mean, departure, that team is a macular now. He won't have to face questions on it. But then, like, there's questions for the players. And most of this current group obviously signed after the announcement of the charges in February 2023. But like, I suppose there's going to be obvious questions about, you know, if the worst comes to the worst for city, whether we talk about termination of contracts, well, just on the players, I mean, do you have any sense that any of the players would have, I don't know, like, so on someone like Enzo Fernandez, would he have a clause in his contract that actually says, you know, I know these charges are coming. I know the verdict is coming. If it's guilty, I want to, and we're relegated, I want to weigh out of the club. I mean, do you think, is that something that players would be considering? Do you think before they join Man City the last couple of years? I couldn't honestly answer that right now. I have to talk to a lot of agents about it. I mean, it would seem given that, like, this is the amazing thing about, I suppose, in that sense. So if you're someone who signed for city before February 2023, you feel it, it must be a different context, but after 2023, like, it's been news for so long. It's been such a kind of a huge talking point for so long, you would have to think that like lawyers and agents would be considering this. But look, we don't have the fine details of players' contracts. The big knock-on effect, obviously, of all of this, which we've not quite touched on yet, is the impact on other clubs. And clearly, we talked about Tottenham, several other clubs who would say, well, Manchester City's titles have been illegitimate and that they deserve to read, whether it's compensation, whether it's trophies, titles, whatever it might be, from that period when City were essentially gaming the system financially. What do you expect to see now? I mean, presumably about to witness a whole tranche of compensation claims that are incredibly complex and messy going forwards. Yeah, and let's not forget that the, I have been to these news stories, the Premier League Club's met specific deadlines to leave this possibility open. And like, you get to the bigger question as well. Like, so throughout this process, it's been insisted that titles would not be, sorry, there wouldn't be retrospective punishment, i.e., that's taken to being a title, it wouldn't be stripped. But once you have this anticipated outcome, that kind of change is the discussion around it, because like saying a title period is one thing, when you have anticipated strength of an outcome like this, so these are different discussions, and even have to Premier League don't strip titles. Like, in people's minds, it's already changed. Like, there might be a slight, an asterisk on the table, but there's an asterisk on people's heads. And that, that matters. That matters to the perception of the Premier League because we are, we are essentially talking about a good chunk of modern Premier League history. The Premier League started in 1992. So what's that? It's 35, 35 years at the end of this season. And we've had, so this investigation started early 2019 from the November 2018 Football Leaks, and it covers a period from 2009, so 2009 to 2026. That is 17 years. So 17 years out of 35 has, at the very least, been under some kind of cloud from this, I mean, that is, that's half the Premier League's history. Yeah, I was going to say I did the maths almost 50%. Both, both scrambling around for maths there. Yeah, I mean, it's extraordinary. I mean, so what happens now in the Miguel? We, I guess the main thing we're waiting for, a proper statement in confirmation from the Premier League, there'll be a response from city, we'll get this full report, which I imagine will be, you know, these reports tend to be pretty damn good. This is going to be a language will be brutal. And they also tend to be long. So this is one to even have people, I mean, it's going to be interesting, because obviously when these things come out, there's always like, you have the verdict, people obviously want analysis, but this, a bit like kind of the APT one, two years ago, the associated party transactions, where it did look from reading that, that in legal terms, city through the kitchen sink at that. And that was like a wavy document. I mean, this, you might have to set it right. It's about a few hours with this. Yeah. Yeah. And then the sanctions will follow from that. And as we understand it, there'll be a media. So even if city wants to appeal, if the 40 points, for example, are taken off Manchester City, they'll immediately be on minus 28 or whatever that would make them on. Is that right? That is the expectation. Yeah, the sanctions would be immediate. I think for the scale of it, but again, we all wait the next stages. So we could find that after the international break, or whenever this sanction comes through, that city are actually in a relegation scrap. But potentially, I mean, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Extraordinary. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. We will leave it there. It's been an interesting emergency podcast. And we will pick this thread up. No doubt. Next week, we were going to discuss a drink, a football drinking bands in the hands or potentially, you know, the fall out from England be Spain tomorrow night, where we're both going. But I'm not sure if this, this way may well rumble on and take over all of those stories. A lot of the talk had been. That's, this is a quite internationally, we're going to find topics. I think producer Jamie wanted to, what wanted to meeting about exactly that. And instead, we've got, well, certainly one of the biggest stories in which football history, not just English football history, but world football history, given the dimensions of this. Very good. All right. We will, I'm sure we'll be talking a lot more about this over the next few weeks and months, maybe even years, probably just the start. Thanks for going to catch up. Thank you to producer Jamie McDonald. This was an independent podcast network production. And we'll be back as usual this week. For more, see you then.