Post-Guardiola Realignment: Arsenal’s Title Window, Chelsea & City’s Fall

Hello and welcome to Copper Independent, the Independence Football Podcast. I'm Lawrence Osler and I'm joined by Chief Football writer Miguel Galeney. Hello and Senior Football Correspondent Richard Jolly. Hello to discuss the new Premier League season. We are back after the World Cup and each week we will be recording a new episode on a big topic or a big talking point in football and we're going to start discussing whether we are entering a new Premier League era, post-Guardiola, post-Sala, new managers everywhere and perhaps a lack of star power as well across the Premier League, why that isn't what that means. We'll also be putting forward some Premier League predictions at the end of the episode and Miguel let's go straight into it. Why do you see this as a new era for the Premier League? Well, it's so much a new era that I've got a live and kicking rolling through my head as enough first Premier League advert back in 1992 for a sky. No, I think the obvious one is Guardiola's gone actually, more so than Salah because as much as Salah was a defining star of the past nine years, he'd been on the way in this season and whereas Guardiola has been probably the most influential individual figure in the Premier League since Alex Ferguson. Hence it does feel the most seismic change since then with a potentially huge effect on the league. That is actually related to everything we taught with Ferguson as well. We just pretty much that, now that I've been speaking to a few people around different club as about this and kind of an analytics department, this sort of thing. For every season for pretty much what the last nine years, maybe like Guardiola's first in 1617 because there was actually a few unknowns and I think that campaign actually has a bit of a, it's almost the inverse of this one. This one is so many new managers that one was a group of new big name managers, but there was still question marks about Guardiola. But once you won that first league, the sense is basically it's a bit like Ferguson's United in the sense. If you want to win the title, you have to finish above them. You have to try and beat them. You probably have to get over 85 points. Now that has actually reduced in the last two years. I think for reasons we're related to his eventual departure, but suddenly this huge figure is gone. And yes, look city, it's still this huge Abu Dhabi project. They're still, I mean, they could still finish the window spending 200 million. They're still going to have one of the best paid squads in world football, but it doesn't have anyone bring them together in the same way like Guardiola's because it's good as Merezka might be. And I suppose that is for the base. Guardiola is with the greatest figures in football history. And just that absence, it leaves a potential vacuum. And I think there are a few water factors that you've mentioned there. I think the biggest is the amount of change in managers to the point that I was like, I've actually come to the piece on this. But Regis Lebrie and Fabian Hearsler are the two fourth longest serving managers in the Premier League at the moment. Wow. I tell her is the longest serving by something like it by double or anyone else. The next after that is Emory. And just from that, I feel more than any other Premier League season that I can remember in a modern era. There are so many unknowns about this. And for all of those reasons, primarily dictated by Guardiola's departure. Yeah, it just feels we're into a new era of the competition. I wonder if we're in a way not in a new era as much as almost waiting for an era. It might subsequently come to be seen as a gap between areas because there is one possibility that that vacuum Miguel talked about is filled by Arsenal. And at the moment, it's quite hard to think who will win the league if Arsenal don't. And thus, they're very well positioned. But if not, it might be the case that in two or three years' time someone else emerges as the prime force, whether that's Manchester City after they've had a bit period of transition, whether that's maybe even Manchester United, whether that's Liverpool. This is a real chance for Arsenal because of that. And in a way, you see that reflected in the fact that who do they go out and sign? Well, Bruno Gimmarage at the age of almost 29. It's not building for the future. It's trying to win something now. And I think in a way, a lot of the league and probably Mick LRT and more than anyone else was waiting for the end of the Guardiola era. And maybe some people didn't fully predict the scale of City's decline in the last two years. And I think that probably surprised City amongst others. But there was always that case of, well, who's the dominant team after Guardiola? What happens after Guardiola? And certainly at some points, there were Liverpool fans who thought, you can clops got a longer contract than pet Guardiola. When Guardiola goes, Liverpool will be the dominant force. Obviously, clop himself realised that his energy was spent and he couldn't go on that long. But the way that other teams fell off or in the case of Chelsea just haven't really challenged for years has created that scenario where at the moment, it's only really Arsenal who look immediately strong. Yeah, that is pretty why it's also psychologically significant for Arsenal that they won the league while Guardiola was there. I mean, we can get into this as a bigger discussion to be how to Arsenal themselves. Because I think that they didn't win the league last year. They could have been primed for, say, a Marineo 15, 16 style collapse. I think that the intensity could have given out. They needed the release. And I think that it had the release rather than being a Marineo 15, 16, it could actually be a Manchester United in 19, 394 where I'm not saying I said it's got to do what Ferguson did. But more so than a team on the goes of transformation from the Assurance to finally winning it. They not won it when Guardiola was there. There would have been that sense. It probably would have been cast against them. You had to wait until he went. And even if it wasn't peak city over the past two years, it was still so important to actually to feed them. And that's why you're right. I think Arsenal are best primed. And it's why it possibly forms a potential divergence say, because exactly what you've said there, Rich, that it might not be a new era, but actually kind of an intervening period. Because that did sort of happen after Ferguson went. It was probably what? It was four years, really, which probably, and it was that four years of kind of where the Premier League was a bit of a vacuum that contributed to Leicester winning it. Arsenal actually probably should have won a title in that period, but with a finger, like ultimately was, he was passed as best at that point. But also, I think there was a fair argument with Arsenal of like being up against the Bramford, just Chelsea, Abu Dhabi city. And like, I see it, city probably should have immediately replaced Ferguson, but it took them to really until they got Guardiola to form a proper era their own. What the Premier League has rarely had apart from in that period around 10 years ago, was a different champion every year, which is something that partly, even though actually very few managers have retained the title, it's just that Ferguson and Guardiola both did it so many times. But you don't often get in the Premier League, that kind of period of one team wins it, then another team wins it, then another team wins it. And some of those are quite interesting periods, where it doesn't have to be an outstanding team. It has to be someone who's better than the rest in that year. And that was what Serie out had a few years ago when they went from that phase of Juventus winning it every year to sort of AC Milan win it one year into win it one year, Napoli win it one year. And if Arsenal don't become the dominant team now, you might see that period here. And the eventual verdict in 20 years time might be to look back and think that wasn't an outstanding team that won it. Well, no, but it was the best team in that particular year. And there's always actually just, I mean, there's all sorts of tangents and strands who go off down here. But while that sort of scenario you're painting, it doesn't necessarily create the greatest teams by definition because our dynasty is not way. It often feels just healthier for football. I mean, English at English football is actually a grandest example of that was between 1959 to 1973, 1974. Actually, it might be 75 even. And that was when there was 16 years where no one retained the league. And look, there's all sorts of different structural reasons that are very relevant to today. You know, like there was more parity in the team as a shared gate receipts all the sort of debates that actually are relevant today, even if it was a completely different football context. But I suppose we're so energising about that, even kind of like reading about it, looking back and going to match it a day from the 60s and all this sort of thing, was basically the sense that not quite any team, but a lot of teams could go into the season and think like, well, if we get one or two signings right, if we hear form, we've got a chance to the title. And it's funny to know that there is a little bit of that this season, but it's only a course around the big six. I mean, can Villa maybe have a thing? I think they're probably just with the wage bill as it is, with kind of the transition there, there, it's probably a bit too difficult. But I mean, the way this starts, what actually indicate a lot? What it might give the rest encouragement is not so much to think they can win the title. But last year, Bournemouth only finished two or three points behind Liverpool in sixth place. And if we assume that fifth place brings Champions League football again, and given the number of questions you could have against all these, in quotes, big six teams apart from Arsenal, I think a club will not necessarily Bournemouth, but there is scope for someone to think, well, maybe if Liverpool would have a bad year, maybe if Chelsea would have a bad year, maybe if Manchester United would have a bad year, we could finish above them, which Ashton Villa did last year, but then Villa in turn, they look weaker than they did last year as well. So to go back to what you were saying earlier, Miguel, about a lot of teams could finish in very different positions from last year. I mean, the three most obvious ones who should be looking to finish much higher, I think a Chelsea Tottenham and Nottingham Forest. Then you get some of the overachievers last year who potentially could finish quite a bit lower, clubs like Bournemouth and Sunderland and Brighton, now they have European football. And so the table could look very different, and also when teams are much of a match in us, it's not a question of being outstanding. It's been a question of just getting more points than the others. And the fact that Liverpool only got, you know, 60 odd points last year. Well, if 60 points is the bar for fifth place, there's a lot of teams who have been getting 50, 55, if you might think just a bit more, just finish above the rest and maybe you're in the Champions League. So there's obviously that sense that perhaps those teams that are in flux, particularly the bigger size and embarking on new or nearly new managerial projects are therefore at a disadvantage to Arsenal. I think particularly in the last few days following the Community Shield and also following Roderie's potential move to Barcelona, there's a real sense that Arsenal are totally in the ascendancy. I've seen a lot of predictions, and pretty much everyone is predicting Arsenal win the league. Is there a sense that actually in this vacuum that we've talked about, one of the other managers, one of these other teams with new projects could come to the fore and actually surprise us. And although we value stability so high, there've obviously been examples in the past of teams, managers winning the Premier League at first attempt, Jose Mourinho, obviously winning the Premier League at the first attempt, gone a starter being another example. Is there a sense rich? I mean, you'll be watching a lot of Liverpool man United man city. Do you feel any of those having watched a little bit of them in preseason are poised to potentially challenge our tether? The one word answer is no. I mean, it's interesting when you talked about managers winning the league in their first year. I mean, Conte did that 10 years ago when also superstar managers coming in. He was the one that had the immediate impact, not Mourinho or Guadilla, but no, to go to those three clubs in the North West, I guess, one by one. I mean, for starters, with city, the Community Shield showed a lot of the problems. I just think even though that city could have this incredibly expensive new midfield, depending on whether I do both, Boadie and Enzo Fernandez both join, I think the midfield's going to be worse than it was in the Rotary, Bernardo Silva partnership. And city's best performance is last season came with Rotary. And you could argue, as I did an article this week, that Manchester City stopped being a great team, the day that Rotary did his crucial against Arsenal in September 2024. You then add on on top of that, well, the manager is obviously a downgrade from Guadilla, in a sense that pretty much anyone would be. As Miguel said, we're not quite sure how good Enzo Morescar is, but pretty much anyone's going to be a downgrade on Guadilla. And yeah, I think City are in the midst of this incredibly expensive rebuilding project, but also a bit of a mix when you see players like Tijani Rinders coming and going, Nico Gonzalez, probably on the bench. It's been a bit hit and missed. They've signed some good players in that, but they're replacing great players. Liverpool, you've got a second really expensive rebuilding project that looks completely unfinished. They haven't signed a replacement for Mahamid Salah, even though it was obvious from last December that he was going to go. Yandee Amande will not be that replacement. He's gone to Rao Madrid, Bradley Barclad, they're looking at, there's a big difference at the moment in valuations between what PSG want and what Liverpool want to pay. I think so much with Liverpool, you can argue, comes back to last summer on the really pretty awful spending spray, and so much of how Eriola will do will rest on those two biggest signings in particular of Alexander Ezer and Florian Veets. But Liverpool go from being favourites last year to now, as I say, they look way off potentially, and it's worth noting, by the way, in terms of managers starting brilliantly, Eriola didn't win any of his first nine games as born with manager. So that's something to bear in mind. And Manchester United, I think Manchester United haven't actually replaced Casamiro yet, even though they knew they faced a big midfield overhaul this summer, but I think United have paid a price for past spending. In that all of a sudden, they didn't have as much money. When prices were going up and you look at the big, the real big midfield transfers this summer, Elliot Anderson, $116 million, United liked him. Matthias Fernandez, $85 million, United liked him. Sandra Tanali for $100 Bruno Gimerosh, $75 United signed none of those. And then you fact room, the United, the other massive difference from last year is that they played 40 games last year. They could play 60 this year. I just don't see this Manchester United if they play 60 games, challenging for the lead at all. As a public stench, that points as well. Because I was thinking about even as Lauren said, so many of the Premier League predictions have arsonous champions. Some of this actually come with some of the uncertainty of the unknown, and especially the difficulty when you are making predictions of being able, attempting to look forward when you don't really have much evidence. I mean, even like one that Rich has pushed on there, like in Europe, like, I can't put another staff in the manager because I've been looking at this a lot. Over half the managers of the Premier League are facing their first pre-season with their team. So we don't know how so many of these teams have got to settle with with a lot of the coaches as well. There's questions about adapting both to new teams, but also adapting to England. I mean, our below, I mean, we're full of them. Like, I find that almost impossible to bring to which way it's going to go. And look, in football, one thing that should always be stressed is, for what we talk about managers, in most cases, it's recruitment that dictates 70 to 80 percent, especially now. And it's why I would have said, like, I think Brighton, despite European football, should be looking at a promising season. They've got a bit more stability. They've got the recruitment. Daniel Farkleads maybe, but again, I might be intrigued by stability. Anyway, it's just, I genuinely can remember a Premier League season like this, where it's been so many. You've got so little to fall back hard in terms of trying to think about what a certain team are going to do. Just, I guess, the other element of this vacuum that we've talked about, and it's going to be, I think, the first Premier League season without Ferguson, Venga, or Guaradiola in it. So there is this vacuum of superstar managers, you can throw Merinion and one or two others into that list as well, but also maybe a vacuum of superstar players. We talked about Salah, who I know wasn't at his best last season, but he was a mega star really in Premier League terms. I suppose going back before that, you've got Kane and De Bruyner and players you've left the league. I suppose only Harland, would you put anyone else on that level and we go through the list of top players in the world now and Bappé and Luminium Arland and Bela and Bellingham and Vanissius and others. Obviously, Vanissius didn't want to come to Arsenal or didn't come anyway. Do we feel like there is a vacuum of superstar players and also is that a problem for the Premier League? Is the Premier League so powerful now, such a commercial beer booth that it can just, it can create new superstars in its own storyline and its own way and doesn't need them to arrive on its shores? Well, actually, so that gets to something we were discussing earlier with that period from the 60s, from 5973, which actually ironically did have, that was actually the era of the real 60s Megastar, obviously, George Bess being the biggest. But that parity is something that other leagues that do have the majority of the global stars they do not have. And I think that's quite a fascinating thing there because I look, this is actually something that Premier League executives think about a lot. I've discussed it in my newsletter before I've done pieces where you know, some executives have even suggested like stuff like luxury tax to get around financial rules just to be able to bring in the sort of star that would elevate the league. Although, I mean, you wonder how any other team would think about that if suddenly a big rival is getting a massive star. It's why Vinicius would have been so huge if he did come. I actually think he would have come, had Madrid not raise their offer and that could have a huge knock on effect this season around Europe. But like if you look at it, I mean, yes, Madrid have Vinicius, Barcelona have Yamal. But it's actually partly, it's because of those stars or really, because it's only two teams that really have those stars that the Spanish league just can't can no longer command the interest that the Premier League does. Likewise, obviously, Paris and Germain are by a Munich 2 degree because I mean, really, the Premier League is now, it's sold on its competitiveness, which sometimes can be overstated, but it is there given the number of potential champions there are or given the number of wealthy teams there are. And also, we do wonder if from that perspective as well, it feels like the Premier League got to a point of such kind of global hegemony that actually, it just doesn't need stars in the same way because it's so internationally popular. As it was, as you suggested there at Lawrence, its popularity is almost self-sustaining in a way because it's funny like, I was thinking about this morning, we're going into the new season at the end of this week. And it's not like say, sky or TNT, I've had to come up with any sort of like theme to sell the Premier League. So on a league, I went big on say, Spain or the World Champions, this is the league that creates the World Champions. As the league is trying to do everything to try and kind of wrestle space back, including change the financial rules for that very reason, the Premier League is really have to do anything. Does it look like a, can you think of any sort of unifying themes? No, but is that almost a complacency in the sense that there's a curiosity that we've discussed about this new season and how much Abby Alonso do, for example, iraola, but is it slightly lacking that, you know, Guadilla comes up against our tetra and the narrative and the background to that and whether it's players, whether it's often its managers, isn't it really in Premier League history that define its kind of superstar status? Is it lacking that and might it be sleeping on those storylines? Or does it just, like you said me ago, does it almost, it just doesn't need it, it just, it just is a storyline, it just is a soap opera, whatever happens, the Premier League. I think the brand recognition of the client, I hate to use that term. I think that is internationally big enough right now. But look, complacency is a potential issue for the medium to long term. So, sorry, Rich. No, it's going to set just a couple of things. Firstly, Lawrence, you talked about Premier League, does it create its own stars? Well, one of the names that we've used a couple of times already today, Mohamed Salah, he was not signed as a global superstar. He was not Vinicius Jr. profile level when he came from Roma. He was a good player from Serie A. And so, there is that element and looking at Liverpool, the pre-season tour, the player that was getting the loudest cheers everywhere was Dominic Solversly, who wasn't even at the World Cup. And he came from RB Leipzig, which yes, they played in European competition sometimes in the Champions League. He didn't arrive as a superstar. He's getting that profile as the player of the year at Liverpool, rather than someone who arrived as a global star. And in terms of the sort of, I wouldn't say complacency is the word because you talked about the managers, well, the Premier League as a brand cannot say to clubs, you need to go and appoint someone who is incredibly charismatic and incredibly famous. Because if so, they'd have all appointed Joseph Merino in the summer. And they've kind of gone for different types of appointments. And only Eureola is a much less controversial figure in his comments. He's not one trophies. He's the appointment Liverpool think is the right appointment. I think Manchester United, I think Jim Radcliffe got very excited by a very charismatic man and appointed him only to discover he lost every week. And instead appointed a man who tries to say nothing interesting at all. And so yes, you could say we don't have that superstar manager. And maybe like a lot of things, it's cyclical. I mean, you do wonder if some of the players at some of the clubs will emerge is that global, you know, that real global big name. And it is possible that with the exception of Holland, for instance, no Premier League player comes in the top 10 of the ballon door. I mean, you could argue Declan Roy Smite, though he didn't have a great world cup. But the Premier League in its kind of 30 plus years has often been quite resilient like that for much of that time. The best players in the world have been at Real Madrid and Barcelona, which partly was the Messi Ronaldo fact. The Premier League has always kind of in its own way gone from strength to strength. And it's done that. Sometimes when it's teams haven't been doing that very well, that well in Europe. And at the moment, you'd start off, and I'd say on day one, only Arsenal of the Premier League clubs look potential champions league winners. And yet at the moment, I don't think the Premier League's under any real threat from LaLiga or anything else. It's its own self-contained seemingly ever booming entity. All right, we'll take a break there. And when we get back in a couple of minutes, we will discuss some of the big storylines from this new intriguing Premier League season. And we'll make some predictions as well. Okay, we've discussed a little bit Liverpool under Ereola, Manchester United, under Carrick City, under Morescar. We haven't yet really talked about Chelsea under Shabby Alonzo Miguel, which is definitely one of the storylines I'm very intrigued by interested in. And we talked about not having superstar managers, but he is someone who, obviously won the Bundesliga and potentially could grow into that, that kind of, I guess, counterpoint to our tether at the top of the league. I mean, how do you think Chelsea are poised coming into the new season? We're not for Arsenal. And or had Arsenal not won a title last season, which is, it was a bit of a parallel with Venger 2016. I think Chelsea actually could have done a Conte 2016-17 themselves. And I think the squad is actually very strong. I look at all this, we've probably should put in the context, which is maybe all the more remarkable given the amount of noise around Chelsea, especially as you know, it finally looks like after two years of this discussion that Todd Bowley might be selling his take to Clear Lake. But yeah, I think the squad is in quite good shape. In fact, I was talking to someone like within Chelsea the other day, he was saying, like, obviously kind of miles away with Scalier Ben Reyes. I look if there was some possibility there might be interested in it. I don't think Lou Scalier will leave Arsenal. Otherwise, the content of their squad, even in the event of Enzo going, which I think most people at the club would probably prefer, certainly I think with the leadership would prefer. I think our tack is particularly strong. If a lanzo can get that integrated, and this is the other side of this, of course, given that a lanzo's approach is very tactically specific. Well, you know, he's got three weeks to work on it. And all of this, obviously, would out everything that comes right on Madrid, which feels like the sort of job where you can go like, it's impossible to judge a manager like a lanzo just because it's so idiosyncratic. Some managers might argue that Chelsea job is similar in some ways. In the sense that you can get swallowed by the politics and it can be difficult to work with the hierarchy. Do you feel that a lanzo will be given, I know he's been given this manager title, as need you feel like it's a slightly different project that he's going to be allowed to unfold over the next weeks and months and hopefully years? Yeah, because of a mereska for all that we're saying he's not, he's no guardiola. He didn't have these issues really with the squad. I think Rossinio had these issues with the squad because ultimately he just, he didn't have that level of experience, but he didn't have the stash. I feel like I increasingly feel a bit of sympathy for a senior, but evidently he wasn't ready for it. And a lanzo, I mean, like one of the themes at a summer at the point that was almost sick of seeing it was all these like videos and I look, look, look, look how well a lanzo still passes the ball. Yeah, we've seen that five or six times now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like he's, but he, but Adam, like that immediately points to like this stash as a player. It's charismatic handsome man who has a major career achievement in coaching already with them. And as I say, it's not like, I think the Real Madrid comparison might have been true or if it was Chelsea 15, 15 to 20 years ago, but they just don't have those Real Madrid style figures. In fact, that's illustrated by the fact that they've actually go for some senior pros to help the chemistry of the dressing room. And I think that will aid a lanzo as well. And I think they're in, but the more I talk about them, the more I think I'm going to, I'd be optimistic for Chelsea's chances. At the risk of preempting our predictions, I've had Chelsea down for second place for a while, which is partly just my lack of confidence in Liverpool United and City. But I do think it's a good squad. If they can sell Todd Baoli or failing that amortize him over about 20 years. It's a really good squad. They've got too many plays. They need to sell quite a lot of them. The Enzo Fernandez point is interesting. I think Ashton Villa in a similar thing with Emmy Martinez, who coincidentally is also Argentinian. I think there's probably some people who just be happy to be rid of him. But that Chelsea team, it's interesting with obviously that the headline acquisitions in one respect were the two oldest ones, Jordan Henderson and Danny Wellbeck, which is in itself remarkable when they paid 117 million for Morgan Rogers. And yet the first name you almost think of with Chelsea's spending spray, Henderson and Wellbeck with a combined age of 71. But the max until a quarter is also different, you know, signing a centreback at 26. And in the same way as Bruno Gamarache, it's signing a player for right now. So it's a question with Chelsea of how much of it is a good manager and a good group of players. And how much do we offset that with the stupidity of Chelsea in the last few years? Can I just ask you guys, is this a slight tangent? But you just mentioned Henderson and Wellbeck there. I mean, do you think that it's possible to achieve what Chelsea obviously clearly want to achieve by that, which is to redress their culture, the dressing room culture to suddenly set an example, raise the stand as all this stuff on the training pitch and presumably on the pitch as well, given her number of red cars last season. Can you just do that by buying two really experienced players? Or do you actually need those players to have, you know, come through the club in some way to develop, to understand the club? Can you just tack that on and then squad suddenly becomes more mature overnight? I can't think of any examples of that happening. But I guess, sorry, just one example that is similar, a slightly different angle was our tetabying players like Gabriel Jesus and Zenchenko from Man City with that sort of champions winners mentality are still on helping them move to that level. But obviously it's a very different route that Chelsea have gone down and an unusual route. It's a really interesting question. I don't have a definitive answer, but if you look at Jordan Henderson's post Liverpool career, everywhere he's been, people have brought him in to do that. You know, he goes to Gerard takes him to our let-effect to make him captain straight away. I actually becomes captain almost straight away. Brentford, they sign him as a senior pro when people like Christian Norgard are going, England take him to the World Cup. And he is enormously respected by so many people. I mean, I think the proper answer is that you actually have that culture within the club and you don't have to just try and bolt it on with two very experienced players. But you could certainly argue Henderson plus Wellbeck plus Jabi Alonzo plus, you know, I think younger players like Morgan Rogers always come across as having a very good attitude. So maybe if you put all those things together, that helps change the culture. I think it can happen. I'm trying to think it definitely happened with some champion. For August needs to do a little bit where he's like obviously, you know, United became self-policing to a degree because of all the players they had there. But he was still there was kind of like he'd bring in that kind of pro, like a Lauren Blanco. He came in a bit later in his career, someone like that. I think Henrik Larsson was an excellent one, even though there was only for a couple of months. Yeah, and everyone raves about kind of like just the how good they are, the kind of the approach, the mentality, even like I suppose Canton out to a degree. Even that was a very different context and a very different point in his career. But yeah, like I think because a player like that comes in especially someone with a background of achievement and it's immediately someone the player has actually looked up to that. They have that natural authority. They're that assertiveness. And I obviously, I mean, that's something that Chelsea have been missing as well. I guess the other team that's particularly interesting in this list of the wealthiest clubs, certainly in the so so called top six would be Tottenham. They've retained Roberta Deserbi on a huge salary. They've made some interesting acquisitions. Sandra Tanali, I guess, Andrew Robertson, Rich, Tottenham, do you see them having a season of a sort of Renaissance under Deserbi? Yeah, I think they're potentially very good. Like Chelsea, they should benefit from the not playing in Europe factor. So another manager who could really benefit from time on the training ground. I think the two midfield signings were really eye-catching because of the transfer of the eating 185 million between them for Tottenham and Finanders. But partly also because it felt with Finanders, they went so high to take Manianite after the equation. But just also in terms of I was surprised they signed them both. They already actually already had some good midfielders. They've got a whole bunch of people that can play as in number 10. Some of them are injured at the moment admittedly and maybe some of them will always be injured. I think in terms of the culture that we've been talking about with Chelsea, the Andy Robertson signings really interesting. And as is the Christian Romero exit of another person who coincidentally is also Argentinian. So I've been wondering if Robertson will actually become Tottenham captain because I suspect he hasn't joined them to just sit on the bench. I think with Spurs maybe some of the questions are the forward line where so far they haven't signed anyone. I could definitely see Tottenham going from 17th to 17th to potentially qualifying for the Champions League this year. And okay, a lot of that is looking at a team on paper compared to what we'll see on the pitch. But I'd be really excited about Tottenham this year. To a degree as well, I mean, we've mentioned it twice now, but you've got to, there's an element of the Villa Newcastle of Denmark here where the season is so intense and European football are so demanding that anyone that doesn't have a European football, especially in this era where coaching it's and coaching and tactics themselves are necessarily so much more integrated and some benefits on which more from time on the training pitch that that suddenly actually is a huge differential. And that's why I think Chelsea and Spurs have a huge advantage and it's why unless England continues this thing of eight to nine teams called over the Eurovision season. But I'm sorry, more so kind of you've got one or two big teams always slipping out of that. Then you could have this kind of a bit of a boom bust for certain certain teams in terms of our league position and it could end up this usually transformative factor every season on the table where you can have teams like shoot up in that way. And just actually because I've been made numerous references to the 60s and 70s today. But the biggest example actually of an old head coming in was a former Tottenham player in 1972 where 71 Dave McKay going from Tottenham to Bryan Clough's Derby County and they immediately win the league. There you go. And just to sort of underline that in terms of Champions League qualification, a team who were very intense at their best Eddie Howe's new castle. They came fourth and fifth in seasons when they weren't in Europe. They found it tough when they were in Europe. Unai Emery's Aston Villa have done a better job of balancing Europe and England. But if you look at Newcastle almost as the model for Dezerby's Tottenham, I think that could bow quite well. So for all these new managers and new projects happening, obviously the beacon of stability is our tetra Arsenal Champions now. So they've broken through that sort of hex of not believing that they could win the league. They know they can do it. They're clearly I think the favourites certainly after the Community Shield as well and the depth of it, the talent they're able to bring on and also not bring on in the case of I think Max Dauman didn't didn't play in others. Sleepers obviously injured. Very impressive, ominous for some of the others. Miguel, where are Arsenal now? I mean, are there any flaws in what looks like a very complete squad to me? I mean, there are some potential caveats to all this. One of them actually is I tell it himself. At the same time that I would say absolutely, he's got an argument to be one of the best coaches in the world for all the baby provokes online. I mean, look what he's done with Arsenal. He is so intense though, both psychologically in terms of what he demands from his teams in terms of kind of training that you would wonder whether there would be a certain burn out at some point. And I think that burn out would have been a lot like clear. Had Arsenal a lot won the title this year back. I think actually that that could end up being a bit of a kind of a sliding doors moment in English football. If Arsenal got a don't go on from that to underfeed at City in April, don't win the league. I tell his potentially gone by October November as a team collapses having not done us to now. I feel that's actually perfectly legitimate to hold both views that actually they could kick on now because of the effect of winning in that way. Connected to that, I suppose, is a style of football I've been playing for the last two years. And how they want us to elevate the level of their attack. They still want to left winger. And Vinicius obviously as we said, like, what are the most amazing things about that? Look, you could do a whole lot of podcasts and Real Madrid. But that looked like a move that made sense for everyone, including what Arsenal needed in the team, what Vinicius could have been, what given Real Madrid and their abundance of players, given they needed a midfielder. And they actually might go in for Supermending now. But it didn't happen. But for all that might I think feed into a bit of perception that Arsenal could be, they could get into the same issue and have too many minimalist games and potentially get caught. If I'm speaking to people around the club and I'm doing a bigger piece in this ahead of the game on Friday, and pretty much a state of the champions thing, there is a fair bit of optimism about that they're going to have something that really they haven't had for two years. And that is Sakka Odegaard and Haverts, properly fit together. And Odegaard comes in now on the back of a good world cup after that kind of weighed over his entire previous season where, I mean like this dude, they won the league with pretty much none of those players playing regularly. And like they're their best scoring season under Iterra, 23, 24, where he got what was in 91 goals and 28 games, 28 league games. That was with those three kind of almost always in the pitch. And because they understand each other so well. And if they can do that, then suddenly you're talking about a very solid team. We're actually a kind of a flowing attack that can kind of restore what they used to be a bell a bit more with the potential of maybe another left-winger to come. And I think that's where suddenly for all that we've been talking about Arsenal being kind of one of the few knowns and stability, that can actually just offer a bit of spark again and ensure that they're different champions this way. And also the assurance that comes with champions feeds in for that. I think there's something interesting in the Arsenal recruitment this summer. And not just we've talked about Gamar as a bit in Christosalus had an excellent game in the community shield. But in terms of our tetan, his safety first instincts, I know they've got a couple of defensive injuries, but I have been surprised by the extent to which they seem to have been pursuing Esri concert or Jurel Quanzer or maybe someone whose name rhymes with concert and quarter-quanzer. When you could have thought put all the remaining money towards a real attacking superstar, Vinicius obviously would have cost a lot. Clearly Chelsea blew them out of the water for Morgan Rogers by going as high as they did. And there were times last season where they felt quite presaic and by the time you got to the latter stage is the Champions League, Arsenal were the team who had the least sort of creativity and incision in attack of those teams. But having said that, Kai Havots was excellent in the final. But Kai Asakas got a hat trick in a world club third play-scame. Martin Odegaard, I thought was absolutely superb when Norway beat Brazil. And you could say with the potential to improve, as Miguel said, is already there if you can just get them fit enough. Just on the market as well, I think this is where Arsenal have been a bit adaptive, I would say as well, because they'd be willing to put all the money in or a lot of money into a huge star because it's worth it, like, of Vinicius. The only thing is there aren't too many of those players available. So for example, with Morgan Rogers, I mean, the reason they ultimately didn't go from is because while they liked him a lot, they didn't think he was worth the fee that Chelsea paid. It's a bit similar, Bradley Barkala, although I think that there could be a bit yet to play there just with the way how the market goes. And I suppose that it does point to this, this one element of the market, one factor in the market, and that pretty crucial, an important difference between a very effective attacker and someone who can make, you can regularly make a difference between what we're talking about, I could a genuinely elite world star. All right, shall we discuss the bottom of the table before we get onto our predictions? Coventry Ipswich and Hull coming up from the championship, Frank Lampard's Coventry, I think I'm officially supposed to say, Miguel, any chance of, I mean, yeah, what chance do we see of these teams surviving? And I feel like a little bit of optimism just in the sense that some of the existing Premier League teams, as we've discussed already, a lot of them are quite a similar level. It's not like, yeah, there's teams there that can be jumped ahead of. Yeah, all of the one thing that goes back to what we're saying, isn't it? It's kind of recruitment, wage bill, and ultimately the level of your squad. So Ipswich to be fair, I think I've spent a lot. What's the fifth biggest spenders in Europe or something? That aren't they? That's time we're recording. And Coventry, yeah. Gary only a safe pair of hands. Coventry, I mean, despite the fact Coventry went up as champions, I felt they had to kind of, it's often a death thing between the kind of the championship and what might be right for the championship, what might be right for the Premier League are two different things. And look, people might cut this up and make a Coventry fans abusing me, but I still feel they've got more to go in terms of quality. And the Hull as well haven't gone through the playoffs. I think Hull and Coventry will be more of a battle, but that is potentially all kind of disrupted as storehood by the fact that there's so many teams above them where you're kind of thinking, not too sure there who gets so, I mean, full of them. Again, they've recruited with a fair bit of clout, but like the Avalot is a massive unknown as well. I mean, look, again, we say you can't read too much into Real Madrid because of what I say, yeah, but even to like, we've got no evidence of what he's like in a job similar to full of and there'll be PSI. I like, I know, look, Palace has been a very well-run club for 13 or 14 years, they've been the Premier League. I do know that the appointment of PSI did a raise a few eyebrows around some of their rivals. And obviously, look, they're still got the quality in that squad, at least Warden in Matena. You see, you'd think that should be enough, but there is, it just feels as that opening for kind of a few reasons, primarily kind of fixtures to suddenly potentially start dropping down. Last year was interesting and I thought really encouraging, and after a couple of years where the three promoted teams just went straight back down again, to have two of them stay up was really good. Sunderland, you know, it was clear from very early on, they were staying up. Leeds was appointed in November, it looked like it could go either way, and then they went on this incredible run of 25 games in which they only lost five of them. At the moment, I do feel it's hard to see any of Coventry Ipswich or Sunderland doing a lead, sorry, Coventry Ipswich or how doing a Sunderland or doing a Leeds. I wonder if Coventry stand the best chance of staying up of the three of them, but I mean Ipswich is an interesting one in terms of the expenditure. I mean, a couple of hours ago, I happened to look at Schalker who were promoted to the Bundesliga and a massive great club, and so far they've spent about three million euros this summer, and Ipswich in the Premier League have spent about 150 million, which they actually spent well over 100 million the last time they were up and it and went back down without coming that close either. I share some of Miguel's doubts about Fulham. It's worth noting that last year, the two top scorer were Harry Wilson and Rao Himinez, and I do think Marco Silva was probably a bit underrated as well. I think he always did an excellent job. I don't think Sunderland will go back down, but I think it's interesting. You sometimes have a team where every player has a good year the same year, and then what happens the year after, and to go back to Ipswich's past, if we remember the season when they came up into George Burley and they finished fifth and then they got relegated in the second year when they were in Europe, I think they had the problem that all of their players had a good year this the first year and not the second year, and so that could drag someone down, and last year, I think clubs like West Ham and Wolves may be operated on the principle of don't worry the three promoter clubs will go straight back down here, Wolves in particular, and they got really caught out by that. So even though we do have a lot of clubs who can be, see much of a muchness, there are times where if they get trapped in that downward spiral, and if someone else goes on a good run, things could change. All right, should we finish making some Premier League predictions, then I'm sure these will serve to embarrass us in a few months' time, particularly given how, as we've discussed, quite unpredictable what a lot of these teams are, but let's start with, I mean, I think I can guess who you might predict wins the league, but should we, should we lay out a top five? Make an official of, you make an official some sort of order, maybe Miguel start with you, what's your top five for the Premier League this season? Arsenal and Chelsea in order, then probably not necessarily in order, Spurs Liverpool, I've said, well, I'm wavering all of Liverpool City and United. With City, I'm sort of just convinced, I think they'll ultimately, they'll spend enough, unlike the quality of squad will be sufficient to get them through, which kind of makes me take some, I mean, United are known as well, just because, like, certainly, there's a different pressure on Karak there, he's the established man, rather than being actually the kind of, the caretaker, they've got signers to make, the squad is thin, Karak is spoken about it, so I think I'm going to go, and I also got European football, I think Liverpool surely players like EZAC will come on, so yeah, I'll go with Arsenal, Chelsea for a second, and then some variation of Spurs Liverpool City. Okay. I don't like agreeing with Miguel, famously, and I don't often do it, I mean, as mentioned earlier, I already had Chelsea down for second behind Arsenal, I've currently got it as City third Liverpool fourth Spurs fifth, and I've got United outside my top five as well, and I think Villa I've got for seventh, because I think they look weaker after some of their sales. It's fair to know a filler though, isn't it? I mean, obviously they've got Emory, but then the danger would even have managed your, like, Emory who's been so suited to the club is suddenly, when there's a huge transition like this, there's just suddenly that sense that, like, that an effect can wear off, there's too much change, but that's, like, they're in a slightly precarious situation there. Losing roaches and tealaments in the same summer, they obviously didn't intend to lose tealaments, so I think that could come at a cost, and also Villa I've got champions league this year, and whilst they've been used to playing in Europe every year, it was notable. The last season they were in the Champions League, they didn't qualify for it again, whereas the seasons when they've been in the conference league or the Europa League, they've managed to do that, and qualify for the Champions League. So you're both predicting Tottenham to finish in the top four, sounds like. Top five. I like it. I tell you he's going to have a promising, a good season, I think, Brentford against stability, well-arorn, notar about. Yeah, well, I would follow both of you and put Arsenal top, and I think I am a little bit more optimistic about Liverpool. I mean, I know that, as we've discussed, they've got some holes in their squad. There's quite, I think Liverpool fans speaking to them are quite excited. I think, partly, I hadn't realised just how bored they were by Arno's slot style of play, and they're quite intrigued and potentially excited by the idea of Eriola and Verts, sort of having a bit of a free reign in number 10, and obviously Ezek, and if it comes back and has an impact, I think Liverpool second ahead of Manchester United, I think United will continue to be quite consistent and solid without challenging for the title. Chelsea fourth, and then I think City might finish fifth. But I say all of that with trepidation, because it's difficult to be too confident. Let's talk about relegation there, I mean, you've both mentioned Fulham. Do you actually think they'll go down, or do you think one of those, I mean, yeah, as we've said before, the three teams who get promoted often go straight back down. Will that be the case this year, Miguel? A Coventry Hall. I was almost 10 years from Everton, you know that. There's sometimes a danger of what, like, like, well, there's an initial stability with Moise. He can sometimes kind of recede on him as well. I mean, they've probably got too much quality. I look at it. Everton, I mean, people have interviewed him to go down for years, like they're, they're, they're, they're also out of the woods in terms of kind of all the reasons kind of external issues during the new stadium. So that would be pushing out, I'd say. And, but I do think they might change manager mid season. Fulham has a set of precarious, but some people are talking about Newcastle to go down. I think they will spend, which will change that. Like I suppose, this is always a thing about predictions at the start of the season that A manages change. B, you've got two weeks of the transfer window left as well as changes to come in January. So it's like, you mean, the potential for a lot of variation. Yeah, I think maybe Fulham to join Coventry and Hall. And that's only I think I'm saying that to prevent myself saying the obvious of the team, the three to cable, we're going to go straight back down. Yeah. Rich. I am going to say the obvious the three again. Yeah. I hope I'm wrong in this because every year, I want to see someone stay up. But yeah, I'm, I'm not convinced any of them will. And I, as I said, I've, I've got reservations about Fulham, about Sunderland, about one or two others, though I have more faith in David Moise in Everton than Miguel does. But I think, I think probably the, the boring answer from me. I'm going to, I do this with little confidence, but I'm going to send Crystal Palace down with Hall and with Coventry. Yeah. Yeah. I just think that squad has been gradually depleted over a few years. And there's going to be a club isn't it? I guess a little bit like West Ham last season, that kind of club who you feel like have been around for, for a long time, who, who get themselves certainly in some kind of battle. And I think it might be palace. I agree with you though, Rich and Sunderland, I think they'll have a far more difficult season. As is often the case with that team that comes up and does very well and finishes in the top half, the next season, they tend to then have a much a battle. I think Sunderland will do. We will see, I'm sure this will be clipped up and made to embarrass us in a few months time, but we'll have the independent, we'll have its official predictions on the website, I think in a couple of days time, so we'll get all those written up. We will leave it there, we'll be back next week. Thanks Rich, thanks Miguel, thank you to our producer, Jamie Mcdonald, for this podcast, it's part of the independent podcast network. So you can check out all the other bits and pieces on there. And thank you for listening and we'll be back very soon. Bye-bye.