The £100m Baseline: Premier League Hegemony and the Crisis of Hyper-Inflated Squad Building

Hello, welcome to Copper Independent, the independence football podcast. I'm Lawrence Osler and I'm joined by Chief Football writer Miguel Delaney. Hello. And Senior Football Correspondent Richard Jolly. Hello. And we are talking about a big football topic every week. This week we are talking about the transfer window. We will get on to Villa and Newcastle's big sales, whether FFP rules are to blame for them having to shift their best players this summer. We are also going to talk about some of the new signings and what might happen in the final few days of the transfer window. But first Miguel we are going to start talking about the extraordinary high prices we have seen this summer, particularly in the Premier League. I have just been having a look at top 10 transfer fees of the summer, seven of them from the Premier League or players going to the Premier League, three Tottenham, one Chelsea one Arsenal and one Man United and you have got Real Madrid Barcelona and AC Milan in the top 10 there as well. Fourteen of the top 20 transfers this summer have been Premier League players. There is more to come. Looks like Nicholas Jackson is going to go to Asden Villa for a big fee which I'm sure you will discuss. Liam Delap is moving to Forrest as well, potentially from Chelsea. The total spend in Europe this summer is pushing close to record numbers so it is 6.7 billion last summer, already top five billion and heading towards that record, seven billion figure perhaps by the end of the transfer window. And some of the figures have been crazy Miguel. I mean, Savinio is one that jumps out to Nali, Rodgers, talked to us about why clubs are spending so much money this summer. Well every transfer window basically has a distinctive theme, be it going to the sum mass of broadcast and dealer ever that shapes it. It was in the case of Premier League for well over a decade. The pursuit of a certain type of player like a striker last summer. But this window in particular looks, I don't think I've ever seen one so shaped by the Premier League's power. So obviously that's been the case for every other domestic league for some time related up broadcast deal. With this summer it feels like that financial power in the Premier League already kind of the Premier League's economic strength has led to this situation where it's just kind of, it's just pushed prices up so much. The point and executive was complaining to me yesterday that a hundred million is the new baseline. That's sort of become your standard player, which is, you mentioned two players there are probably illicit over that. I mean, Savinio, go to players he might be, what he did in between signing for Spurs and joining City and the kind of what was it like the low number of goals, low number of assists and also relatively low appearances to be fair. But how does that justify this price similar with the lap, who ended up with a chance of, when the chance of a 30 million last summer now, okay, that was a bit conditioned by a clause. But for his price to go up after what was in pure performance terms, a poor season in the Premier League and it does say something I think about a market that's, we're obviously going to get into the kind of financial rules a little bit and especially the kind of complaints of Villa and Newcastle, which not to say they don't have some points, but I think I misplaced and for all to talk about controls, it feels like there's so much money in the Premier League now that it's just kind of creating this constant updraft and also the fact that teams are in terms of kind of the cash flow and the money coming in from broadcast and they themselves are wealthy. But that also just means so much money just goes straight out on wages and this constant need for growth and evolution. I mean that is why a football team is about the course that it's just it's having this effect of constantly pushing a crisis and constantly pushing a player wages with very little restraints and of course that I mean the idea of like this, this the thing, it's all the kind of curious where we've spoken about this in previous podcasts written about of most of the owners of the Premier League, especially the US based owners, essentially US capitalists are always complaining, you know, in an American sport, we sit down around the table, we basically kind of we come together and figure out how much money we're going to make. In the Premier League, they come to these meetings and kind of it ends up being how much they're going to lose because so much goes out. But they could come to collective agreements on transfers, but because there's almost kind of this game theory situation where they're just all in kind of just constant competition all looking towards the individual short term, especially those clubs in the bottom half, it just creates this constant cycle that's just pushing figures up and up and up and then you get into this situation where there's this constant pressure for teams to to do deals and suddenly where it's almost kind of, it can be the counterproductive where in order to stay within the rules, which have been updated, something we'll get on to, they have to make transfers sometimes for non football decisions or cell players before they'd want it. And hence it is a particularly strange market this year. I think the last week is going to be frenetic, there's going to be a lot of business and a lot of negotiation, a lot of offers, but I don't think that necessarily leads to completed business in a lot of cases, which is supposed to something that Rich has wanted to touch on in terms of a potentially frustrated window. Yeah, it just feels as though a lot of clubs have spent a lot of money and yet very few of them are completely satisfied, very few of them have got everything they want yet. You can look at Liverpool and say they haven't replaced Muhammad Salah yet. You can look at Manchester United and say yes, they've just brought in Carlos Belieber, but they didn't do it before the start of the season. You know, they lost the first game with a new midfield, Aston Villa obviously that rebuilding job is only half way done, Tottenham managed to spend a lot of money start the season with effectively a B team forward line. And you can go on and on and there's a whole bunch of teams to be thinking not really happy with it so far, and then you look at the number and the number they've spent will be very high. And in a few cases like Aston Villa, like Newcastle, the number they've brought in will also be very high. It's just this bizarre thing where the more everyone spends, the less satisfied everyone is. Just as you're speaking there, Rich, I was thinking how, how actually odd it is now or how much of an outlier it is for that kind of classic thing in terms of transfer building. And look, some of this is related to the sheer size of squads now, but it's not like you see teams really even kind of forensically put in that final piece, even in that like as recently as five, six years ago, we're living with people getting Van Dyke and Allison or say, like I've gone back much further, various Alex Ferguson signings, because like it I suppose the demands are much greater to be fair, so they have to build deeper squads. But it also just feels like there's just, there's just this constant movements and it's not quite for the sake of it. It's more because of the current parameters of rules of what you need to do with your squads of kind of various changing situations that they just meant it was just as rich as they go put there. There's constant rotation of players and a constant need to kind of keep it going. Like I was thinking, just become a very different art, I think, to squad building in this sort of context. And if you look at the cross primary leagues, as Rich has touched on there, who probably has their squad closest to how they wanted? Well, it's probably just Arsenal, who probably wouldn't play or away from what they want, then that's, that's Yulia Alvarez. Maybe a Brentford comes to mind as well, maybe. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And there that club, you said, you know, that club who maybe go and just buy that extra piece that they need, when it's particularly when they have to sell. But you're right. And I also, I was just thinking then how many of those big clubs also, it feels like they are quite unprepared for this summer. You talk about Van Dyke or Alison and there's a clear task to finish the puzzle for those big clubs often. And now it feels like particularly city, it's like they weren't ready for Roderie to leave. They weren't ready for a lot of these players to suddenly depart, whether that's because they spend so much time thinking about replacing Guardiola. It feels like that's happening across the Premier League now, where teams are only really Arsenal. And perhaps you could say Manchester United are calmly rebuilding at the very top and the top end, whether maybe not successfully have mentioned United's case, but it feels like there's no, no, no, can I make a point there quickly on Manchester United? I think some of the big clubs, even the biggest ones, have been caught out by the massive inflation in fees because you look at the midfield, Manchester United have bought three players for a guarantee of 148 million could go up a bit in add-ons in Belieber, Santos and Telemens. Go back a few months, Manchester United were looking at players like Elias Anderson and Matthias Fernandez and Aralean Churamedi, who hasn't moved. When Elliott Anderson's price goes to 116 million, United can't bid, when Matthias Fernandez goes to 85, United can't bid, I do think Tottenham have almost tried to blow opponents out the water, having missed out on players in the past like Eberrechi, Eisei and Brian and Boimo. But this is an issue for Liverpool as well. They probably started off their window thinking, we've got a nice budget for a winger to replace Mohammed Salah here. The Amanda, we know they wanted, he ends up at Real Madrid, Bradley Barker, I think one of the things that happened there was that PSG looked at Premier League prices, thought other Premier League clubs are paying crazy money, thought Liverpool have paid crazy money for Alexander Eiseig, so why put a price at 70 million on Bradley Barker, when you could ask for 140 and see if you get it? We just, on that one, Richard, play maybe definitely the opposite slightly, it was put to me by someone in football that United are almost going to as close to a money-boiled approach as they can. They've basically kind of restructured the midfield for around 150 million, which relative to other prices is low, each of those midfielders may be outside believe, but even actually believe they're given his form this season, come with a small element of risk, given the different relic, tealamons, a lovely footballer, don't need more mobility, etc. Where do you stand on that? Yeah, I asked Michael Carrick about it and he did say he thought they got a value for money, which obviously to a certain extent he would say, but when you look at some of the prices and tealamons of course was a release clause, which Aston Villa may regret that that release clause was set at that amount. On the other hand, you can look at it and say, well, they served him on a free transfer, they got 35 million for him when he's 29, financially that's still a very good deal. I think the danger with United is if they end up with what is deemed a second rate midfield compared to some of the others. You know, Andrei Santos was Josie's third choice central midfielder last year, way behind Kaiseido and Fernandez. Carlos Belieber had a very good season in 2024-25, not such a good one last year. He's clearly got talent and potential. But the most admired central midfielders who've moved this summer, by and large with the ones who didn't end up at United, and you could say maybe they would have never got Bruno Gilmeray's yet anyway, because he would have wanted to join the champions. But the danger is United have spent 150 million and not got a great midfield. Last year they spent 200 million and I didn't think they got a great forward line. They got three players who all got 10, 11, 12 Premier League goals, which was decent, so none of them are failures. But on the other hand, they're not real genuine high-class players and that's the danger they've spent all this money and still the only real world-class player in the squad is Bruno Fernandez. But I feel that little bit of spurs, like, don't get me wrong, the signings they've made have improved the level of the team. And obviously some of this is going to be dictated by if they get back into the Champions League, you could say it's relatively justified. I mean, there's a bit of kind of like there's almost a binary element to some of these transfer windows in that sense. Although, as you see with Liverpool, one window can have longer-term effects, but given the money that Spurs have felt, it doesn't feel like the upgrade is, it reflects the huge amount of cash that's gone out. It would be potential for even more to come. Yeah, I mean, I look at the Spurs' prices and I think the four players they've bought so far, they've arguably paid at least 20 million over the odds for all four. Now, in the case of Van Hecker, there is obviously the complicating factor that Luca Viscavic goes to Brighton and you can argue whether or not those two prices are pegged to each other. In the case of Fernandez and Tonali, I think they were trying to take other teams out of the equation and I really like Tonali as a player. In the case of Savinia, that price is simply crazy. They are bidding against themselves for a man who scored two Premier League goals and I've seen quite a lot of Savinia as Manchester City career. He arrived when he was young, there was obvious promise there, obvious talent there and you think he's a work in progress his first year I would say was reasonably encouraging. His second year was awful, he played well about twice. There were times when Guadilla picked him when he really shouldn't have done. If you look at Guadilla's last ever Champions League tie, he goes away to the Bernabéu, picks Savinia, has to take him off at half time, they're three nil down and the tie is almost over. One of the things with Manchester City spending and maybe we'll never get an answer to this is would they have bought Antoine Savinia if Savinia and Mammou should have been good in the first half of last season? That's Savinia prices, that's just off the charts as far as I'm concerned. He joined two years ago from Troy which was City's sister club so we don't, yeah it's maybe not a totally fair fee, 20 million pounds, maybe this. It was 30 million pounds which I agree at the time you're saying is that low and in this first season you think yeah maybe it's a bit low but on the other hand as I say he scored two Premier League goals and it's worth remembering a year after that Manchester City got Ryan Cherokee for the same price. Now ask any city fan which one they think is better out of Savinia and Cherokee but even if you'd said Savinia's market value two years ago was not 30 million but 40 million, how is it now 75 million basic with a guaranteed five million add-ons and then a potential of five more on top of that? Just on the market being inflated, I had to look back at last few seasons and this 100 million figure Miguel that you mentioned being almost standard now for a player, I mean there was a summer 2324 season, beginning of 2324 season when you had Gvadi El Go to City, Kane Go to Bayern Munich, Kaisela Go to Chelsea, Rice Go to Arsenal, all of that kind of 100 million more euros but that kind of figure but obviously when I list those players particularly obviously Kane, Kaisela and Rice you're talking about two of the best midfielders in Europe, the best forward in Europe whereas now I think that what's different the 100 million fee now is getting you a completely different and arguably much lower quality of play. Now we'll see what happens with Rodgers and Elliot Anderson, they're very talented players and they may become top midfielders in Europe but I wouldn't necessarily put Tnuali and Fernandez in that bracket yet, Savinia either and even Anderson and Rodgers aren't there yet so it just it feels like you're buying almost more potential than than proving quality and belling them obviously within that kind of bracket as well, that sort of fee. Well, I mean, Rice also was like he was seen as one of those final piece players, it took him another two years to do it to be fair, but three years well, Rice was one of the most important players in that well if not the most important player in the Arsenal team so I mean that look all of these things are relative at all prices you could say ridiculous but in that sort of market overall just around over 100 million for Rice, that team is very fair because you are buying, you're buying basically a guarantee and as you say there in a lot of these cases now 100 million basically isn't getting you a guarantee and you touched on Belgium there. Some of this has been shaped as opposed by the Madrid approach as well what Madrid did was they realized they couldn't quite dominate the market in the way they used to against the kind of the big Premier League clubs, the Weltes Premier League clubs so they switched that hence they'd give huge wages to players on free contracts and there's been a few of those and that's how they'd get players on their prime but they target younger players with basically playing the highest fees but given them kind of structured contracts that would start low and grow and they had the hence they like that's basically what's happened with the Nishis whereas with the Premier League I mean it's it's both big fees and at the moment competitive wages I mean like this is this is the other side to all this that when you look at the wage bills of Premier League clubs or if you look at the annual Deloitte football money list this is one of the things that feeds in to the Premier League what it is now is a quote unquote product but what was Wolves or what are the kind of top 30 wealthiest clubs in the world. Yeah I've actually got it yeah I've got it okay yeah and West Ham a 20th in the 2026 Deloitte money league which is pretty crazy really yeah and like and all of that is obviously completely driven by broadcast money like what you say 80 to 90 percent driven by the broadcast money the deal going back to 2013 it creates kind of a self-repetuating thing I know the money also kind of suppose you know of itself petuates that because the more money the broadcasting it's what basically Silvio Berlusconi at Milan used to refer to the virtuous cycle the broadcasting money comes in you pay for better players the broadcasting money grows etc etc but it's the Premier League almost looks like it's that kind of another unseen stage at that cycle and I do wonder how much of that has connected that a fact it is just this bubble unto itself well maybe it's not bubble because I don't think it's gonna it doesn't feel like it's gonna burst anytime soon at least in terms of its global popularity it's got such an advantage but I have to say I have felt like this isn't a new point when I'm still been struck by it so often this summer imagine you said to someone in the mid 90s let alone as recently as the mid 2000s that are Brentford or Bournemouth would have more financial power than AC Milan that mid rank of Premier League side particularly the ones like Villa and Newcastle were pushing against the glass ceiling and now having to sell a lot of their players perhaps that's the other big storyline from this summer McGell I guess the big question is why why have Aston Villa had to sell and are continuing to sell it seems like what can may also go any mine Martinez may also go selling their key players the core of their team Newcastle have been similar obviously Anthony Gordon being at the biggest name but also Tanali leaving this summer Bruno Gimerash as well we've discussed are they being forced as a lot of their fans will say on social media by the squad cost ratio rules which is the new version of sort of FFP and Premier League or is this something else is this about player power and players you just want the opportunity to go to bigger clubs and therefore are able to force their move well obviously some of the complaints are connected to the old system PSOR and that has changed and the belief in the Premier League is that the SEOR allows more ambition more flexibility and essentially as someone in football put it to me it's got to work out better for either the wealthy existing wealthy clubs or clubs or wealthy owners i.e those who want to spend and Villa Newcastle obviously want to spend and look it does like does it drive you interconnected things here Villa last summer i mean we we saw the kind of the the the sanction they got from UEFA they did they've had to sell a various points Newcastle haven't anyway it's the same degree in fact it's it's it's commonly seen that one of the reasons Eddie Hale ultimately later because basically you know his team was going but they a lot of those major players basically wanted to go because of the old thing in football well they felt like a win more and earn more elsewhere at wealthier clubs or at least clubs with bigger income of their own bigger self generating revenue but i suppose Newcastle and Villa fans would argue that will of those players that desire to leave is directly connected to the fact they can't themselves grow i mean i've got a lot of thoughts on this and maybe before i go on a spiel i wonder is it there it's better to ring on but ring and riches views on it i can empathize with Villa Newcastle's complaints i just think the entire argument is completely misdirected yeah i think it's interesting there's there's some different elements to this because Villa Newcastle were in similar positions than they pursued different strategies Villa had the higher wage bill but Villa had this constant churn of players or as Miguel said Newcastle didn't want to sell anyway they kept Eddie Hale's best team together in the process they had to sacrifice Elliott Anderson and Yan Kuba Minter they really think they didn't want to lose Anderson in particular but they had to to avoid the deductions and they will say that you know there was a limit being put on ambition in that respect of the two clubs in terms of the strategy they adopted i have a lot more sympathy for Newcastle in one way because when we talk about team building and buying nearly every signing Eddie Hale made for a long time succeeded nearly every player improved and you think well this if you ignore the elements of the Saudi Arabian ownership for a minute this is actually what we should want to see Villa have always had this weird element where Unai Emery is a brilliant manager who has done a brilliant job and yet he has done a brilliant job with people signed by Dean Smith Steve Bruce and Stephen Gerard and a lot of the signings Emery has made have come and gone they had this one incredible success in Rodgers but you look at the team that started the Europa League final seven players bought by previous managers two free transfers in Telemann said Lindelof so only two players the Emery had actually signed with transfer fees to begin with and he do wonder where all the others sort of went to so there's a lot of weirdness and idiot syncracies to this Villa project which I think again I can go into a greater length later on but means that they've actually been in quite a different position to Newcastle Villa of I think they have constantly been up against the rules and that's one of the reasons why there's been some of that churn of players every year but there's also been an underlying weirdness of lots of people coming and going and having no impact whatsoever to defend Newcastle and Villa in this particular situation the new rules are now at the so the squad cost ratio rules that have come in this system are pegged to clubs revenues and both of those clubs have significant revenues in the grand scheme of things they're both in the top 20 in Europe for revenue but looking at Deloitte's money list they are so I've got the figures here Villa's revenue was 450 million euros Newcastles was around 400 million euros so similar Tottenham's in the top 10 they were 672 million euros and then you go up to the big Liverpool City Arsenal United rule up at 800 million euros so the big four clubs in terms of revenue in the Premier League are double the revenue of Newcastle and Villa if you then peg your outgoing your spending your transfer fees and your wages to those revenues there's just absolutely no ways that they can ever compete how can they ever break into that that exclusive club but that's precisely why the issue isn't the rules it's the revenues or or more so football has to look at more creative ways to a kind of less but like the revenue gaps weren't as great 20 years ago like the champions league has actually been a massive driver of this issue the champions league itself it's been an engine for the big clubs and hence you have the situation or basically you know you could the expanded champions league that does feel like a bit of a kind of a a super league by stealth that's something has to be looked at there's all sorts of things like the draft of players for one to put better phrase rather what we're talking about is the distribution equality where the money or by extension the players go and like that's why one of the best rules in European football history that was sadly sure it lived for all sorts of reasons actually the foreign player rule because a this I'm obviously talking about the one that was already was around 1989 to I'm maybe about in 1991 to the introduction to the bosom rule 95 where any club competing in Europe could only have three foreign players and two assimilated players players like who'd been in a country for a long time so kind of moved to that next dinosaur when was one of them but what that did immediately was it just it just forced a great distribution of players because if the biggest club is couldn't just who broke squads of any nationality it just insured players stayed at certain clubs for longer obviously the best halons are going to be picked up anyway but there wasn't the same flurry to the market now and look I know MEPs are currently looking at this and considering the potential effects as in as far as there is focus on football a European Union level but there is this kind of current debate over whether the bosom in rule and aspects of European law actually serve sport in terms of competition because it doesn't look like a lot of this as villain Newcastle fans are arguing is anti-competitive and I wonder if you can't if you can't apply the old foreign player rule according to EU law and freedom of movement and all that you can work it another way where it's a every first eleven has to have three homegrown players it changes the dynamic of the market the money you have is as relevant and also you're building players are forages more of a connection to the community yeah I mean that's one thing I would I think is really missing now from the from the modern game and Jack Greenish is such a good example of that where he could have been Villas captain over the past few years lifted the European trophy for them and obviously he's gone on and done some very good things for city and and some less good things in the last season or so where a player like that I think of Calvin Phillips as well he's just he was leads through and through and his career has just sort of petered out he's someone who I probably 20 30 years ago would be a one club player and become a legend and and then you do book forage those bonds with with fans and I feel like that's really missing now particularly with the high churn like you say I guess just one thing on Villa Newcastle last thing and that it's not just that they can't spend though is it that they're actually actively having to sell their best players is there anything that a club can do to to stop that now if if if they want if they go into this summer and say well actually we want to keep your itillumans and Ollie Watkins and we want to keep our best players is there anything they can do now is it seems like they're powerless to stop this kind of destruction of the core of a other team of a very good team well I disagree with some of that and say there's definitely things they can do but also if you look at the players who are leaving these clubs with some of them are leaving in Newcastle's case some of them are almost leaving because they got too good Bruno Gilmarage wants to join Arsenal and Arsenal won him Anthony Gordon wants to join Barcelona and Barcelona won him and they've sold three players in the last two summers to the reigning champions if you include Isaac you can also say though that in the context of clubs where they have a lot of players they can actually try selling someone else there is you look at these squads and in theory there's all these equity in the squad this players were 20 million that players were 30 million sometimes clubs are really good at bringing that money in and then for a long time Liverpool were they haven't done it so much this year for a long time Manchester City were Chelsea have brought in a lot of money for these fringe players to look at Villa specifically they didn't want to sow uri tealumans he had a release clause but that's the case regardless when people have release clauses Morgan Rogers it always looked like he would go but they got an absolutely incredible price Oli Watkins if they sell Oli Watkins it's nothing to do with squad cost ratio because they've turned down some bid to Raleigh out it's because he wants to go to Saudi Arabia for the money there you look at some of the other examples Emmy Martinez they wanted Emmy Martinez to be sold to such an extent that they bought a replacement without yet selling Martinez they tired of the drama of the man but there is actually another point with Villa which in a way is a shame but the high point in a way had to be the end point because it was an aging team and if that doesn't mean they're all going to be over the hill on September September the 1st but within a year or two they couldn't have a situation where they still had all of McGin and Mings and Concert and Watkins and Dina and Tealumans and Cash and Lindelof there's the warning from Manchester City a couple of years ago what happens when you let a team grow old and suddenly you've got massive problems just one thing I would say it's not like all of this is new obviously kind of the rules have kind of counted but like when it was amazing clips and actually in British in English football history is the the dearly departed Lake Ray Kevin Hegan they got arrested like arguing on the steps of St James Park what Newcastle fans furious that he'd sold Andy Cole to Manchester United okay we've got five or six days of the transfer window left as we record this still plenty of moves to happen I imagine particularly clubs like City Liverpool Villa rebuilding half of this quad it feels like rich you were at Newcastle Liverpool to to draw it St James Park what did you make of of both teams new looks yeah they're both incomplete should we say but I thought there was some promise from both sides Jeremy Jackay whose signings arranged in January but who hadn't been seen at Liverpool since then and wasn't seen for much of a preseason because of injury he was really impressive he's absolutely massive which is particularly useful when Eriola wants his centre backs to be able to defend one on one to have a big bloke who is quick but also who can come out of defence with the ball and Liverpool have always felt despite his youth he is being signed for now he's not just being signed to be good in two or three years so I thought that was really encouraging Victor Munoz came off the bench and won the late penalty and it was noticeable firstly how quick he is but also they came off the bench on the right which is the position they still haven't filled to replace Mohammed Salah so that was quite encouraging Newcastle actually really liked Amar Deditch the right back who was only brought in last week so there's only a few days after his arrival but who is a player known to Matthias Yisler before played for a Red Bull Seltzberg also midfield there was Sean Stoyer from Iaxx who's only 18 she had quite a bit of personality which I thought bowed it well Newcastle have been looking after Brunnig Mirage went for a more experienced midfielder which they will get with Nico Gonzalez but they had this really young midfield of Stoyer and Lewis Miley and it did show that there is actually talent there Nico Gonzalez is only 24 and a half and he'll be the oldest one they they signed but they kind of had to bring in someone a bit more experienced after one 18 year olds and three 20 year olds but there were some early signs that they found some talented players regardless of how the strategy will play out one theme from this transfer window is I've read quite often the clubs prioritising Premier League Premier League proven talent and actually all of the players you mentioned there Rich I think just going through them at Newcastle and Liverpool are players who've come from outside of the Premier League and it sounds like hit the ground running in several of those cases I just wonder whether you guys think there's a little bit of a premium put on this idea of the Premier League proven player which perhaps explains the price of a Roger's and Ellie Anderson and others to Nali do we do you think clubs overvalue the trait of having played and proven themselves in the Premier League is that is it almost a slightly kind of arrogant viewpoint that you have to have done it in our league in order to succeed in our league now it's going to say in general yes but you do on the other hand get some examples of players who come in like we mentioned to City Zone some in you and Guay here you know Premier League ready they look they looked absolutely perfect cases of it Newcastle on the other hand last year there was the argument you know and this is Premier League ready he scored 19 Premier League goes for Brentford last season he had a terrible first year there and actually was only at the start of his second season that he's yeah he looked really good but yeah I think it's a bit of a mix is the short answer and there's two ways of looking at it as well so one and one the clubs like Manchester United have been obsessed with for two years and one that actually to be fair I would say City and to slightly lesser extent Liverpool actually really maximise about five six years ago was this whole concept of hang on Brighton and well it's mostly Brighton at that point now it's Brentford Brighton Brentford are getting in these players that they're identifying this talent that they intend to sell on for 50 to 100 million can we not use the same approach to get those players earlier but a fundamental issue then is it's not just about talent it's also about whether a player a psychological ready and there is and there is a huge jump from going from at this point financially weaker leagues and by extension hello a quarter leagues in the Premier League to then having to do it not just in the Premier League but having to do it at one of the clubs with like Manchester United a massive example of that given like just they can swallow a player a good player up that was I mean that was the one of the talking points probably from the weekend was Namadu Sangare and how he was so impressive for Brentford and you're thinking to yourself well why is why haven't a man United or or another major club gone in for him and bought him for what was it 35 million but perhaps you're right does a player like Sangare actually benefit and and almost need to have that season or two at a Brentford at a Brighton where the little bit of the spotlight is slightly less harsh they can forward to make one or two mistakes that the Labour for example can forward to have a perhaps a poor season at Brighton and kind of get away with it in a sense as you discussed earlier Rich maybe do they need that season in a sort of slightly smaller club quote unquote they can do I mean certainly with Liverpool a lot of the Liverpool strategy there was a quote from Yurkin Club about three years ago where he said and I'm slightly paraphrasing him here our owners like players who are 23 with 200 games so you've got that sample size they're used to the rig as a first in football they're tested in some cases like someone like Alexis McAllister they're tested in the Premier League in some of the other cases they might be tested by playing first of a Porto or Ben Feaker so you know a Red Bull Leipzig something like that you could argue one of the ways Chelsea went wrong was that they thought we'll sign these incredibly talented 19 year olds but yes they've got talent but if you put them in the wrong club where there's 800 players and what they don't improve some of them just become 22 year olds who were talented at 19 and have spent three years going out on loan now clearly that's not the Newcastle strategy in that these 18 and 20 year olds they're buying they're not going to park them at the back of the squad with 58 other players ahead of them they are going to be involved but there is that stepping stone argument I think not just San Gari at Brentford but the midfield a Coventry have signed he played for Garner and the World Cup he's seen as another one who might you know in a years time make that jump up to it to a bigger club and that bigger club will have had the sample series of watching them play every week for Coventry or Brentford the other game you were at Rich was Hull the Man United this weekend a double a double header for you in the Northeast ish Hull played very very well and beat Man United I mean should United fans be a little bit worried that they've obviously got a bought belabor does he solve some of the issues that you might have seen in that game I think you'll bring a bit more mobility I would hope he'd be first choice ahead of André Santos who I said earlier I'm a bit dubious about the damning thing for Manchester United's new 83 million pound midfield was that they were the best midfielder in the pitch was a hull player who cost 50 grand in Regan Slater and Matt crux the other hull central midfielder said we must be the cheapest midfield pair in the Premier League so that that wasn't the greatest stuff for the United new double axe tealamans the issue I think the thing that probably put people off him in the past was mobility in fairness the year he was player of the year at Villa 2024 25 he was outstanding and he was fitter than he ever has been before his world cup stats were incredible book ground coverage he was right at the top of the stats there exactly so once you get in moving the quality is there the thing I would wonder about with tealamans is that he's not a number six and Kobe Mino isn't a number six so does that mean they can only play without each other so I'm a bit unsure about this united midfield rebuild just quickly I like the hull goalkeeper constantist tinnitus salitis I mean you met a couple of good saves but even above that he just looked a really reassuring presence I just thought if you were a defender you'd be confident if he was behind you well I actually thought that was one of the striking things of the game oh well beyond the fact that Manchester United spent a lot of the match firing crosses up for a long time when he didn't have a forward and then for sersco who they suddenly seem to change the approach but with regardless of scenario he was he was extremely comfortable comfortable like given this is like a first game in the famous Premier League and the national idea like as we're all the the talk last season about meatballs and kind of the physicality young goalkeepers he really didn't look like he had an issue what do we think makes the final few days of the window then what are you expecting some of the biggest moves to look out for I think it'll be chaotic with constant updates in the sense that I think Cubs are going to try and do a lot of business and I think that the final day could be mayhem because like there's again like it would so much it is like I've lost track of the amount of time as the people in football have said to me well at the moment the transfer markets like a housing market there's a chain in that one and like this is linked to the rules one deal needs to happen for another's happen and I suppose it's even been an element of this with the ongoing saga this week where new castle have paid city for Niko Gonzalez city are now more bolster to finally bring in Buaddi and Enzo Fernandez that could lead to Chelsea going for Alex Scott which could lead to Bournemouth doing business but also from what I've heard from the EFL as well say a lot of Premier League there not being clear on what loans were available yet because essentially they got so much business to do themselves and don't know which players they're going to need so I think we're going to see this cascade go right up until closed the window of Tuesday I think there's there as rich as already touched on I think we're going to see a lot of frustrated clubs and clubs that will feel they have to still have to do a lot of business in January Liverpool are one of what we've touched on a little bit earlier rich and you talked about the issue of maybe a right-winger we talked about Bradley Barclay earlier and Miguel and what do we expect from Liverpool we see one maybe two signings and and I feel certainly from that first game that they've got quite a bit to repair yeah I mean I've done a piece for the independentism another video Liverpool somehow does feel for a team that for years like city and like when look at it city as well of their own issues and how how many signings haven't worked out but for a team that have been so forensic or club that have been so forensic it's just feel Liverpool have kind of facing this on unusually frenetic and frantic last week where like with someone described a situation where he is like it's it's it's as if they're in a boat with six leagues but they don't know which the prioritized first if you if you've prioritized one it just leaves you at a league in another area without actually compounded by the problem without the problem but Iriola's football essentially demands back up in every single position because it's so intense and if you if you overuse certain players that will inevitably lead to injury so what do what do they pray I think it could be a situation where like this is my own this is me speculating or the casting round was a potential best deal in each area I mean like I'm curious what you think rich there I mean some people I know I've been surprised that they they are going to devote so much to the budget to Bradley Barclay if that if that deal gets done given they would feel that actually for all they need a replacement the seller you can reshape the attack whereas in other areas they're just thin to be honest the budget is basically devoted to wingers as it stands I mean if they'd managed to get in Barclay or tm and they or someone else earlier in the window they might have been upset yeah there's a bit left over let's go and do something else the Jeremy Jackay sailing as I said arranged in January so that's part of the summer budget but after that the budget is just all wingers and in a way getting Ronald Rauho on loan was almost a stroke of luck because it meant they didn't have to pay for another defender when it was obvious with the injuries of Joe Gomez and Connor Bradley they were short at the back but Miguel's right about the six leagues I mean they've got a lot stored up to do next summer already I don't think anyone can be particularly convinced by the two fullbacks who started at Newcastle you'd want a defensive midfielder there's a whole load of other issues but yeah it's wingers wingers wingers and you know Curtis Jones has gone for instance and there isn't really any anticipation at the moment they'll impress they'll replace him this window in part because Trani only stone quite well but in part because as I said just the money has to go on wide men we obviously speak about prices up on the program but this is another aspect like the PSG are they've the caterio and the champions are europe they're like they haven't become this revenue machine they're financially secure but even they they see a Premier League club coming and thinking right they're like I've had executives telling me like foreign clubs when Premier League comes in if there's one Premier League comes in the price price goes up 20% if two come in it's doubled because you can generate a bit of a race and like that from what I was told at Arsenal they obviously considered back a lot to start at the summer I reported that at the start of the World Cup on the day of England Croatia which feels a long time ago but Arsenal basically put off a little bit like Morgan Rodgers actually because they thought well given the situation we're in we don't need the players that badly to pay what we think is 30 million over the odds for their actual quality and I suppose like they just on Liverpool I think this is all the more relevant because they are the last two champions it is amazing the way Arsenal to be fair to them have kind of gotten to a situation where they are kind of they can just kind of tick away at their squad now they've got in a good place mostly as they wanted and obviously a left forward or Alvarez would complete what they want whereas Liverpool who what three four years ago were in pretty much a similar situation given the team the club had fashioned like their squad just feels it feels a logical now almost like it is like it's got different bits and different areas are like different areas are far stronger than other is like the front line being being the most obvious the one reason I think Barclay might get done is that PSG have actually already signed his replacement they've signed three forwards this window the signed Ferrant Torres they signed at Cluish they signed the go from Ajax so in the end I think they might bring the price down but it feels like Liverpool are in the same situation they're in at the end of last window where they're playing this game of brinkmanship and they failed and it twice at the end of last window because the last summer because they missed out on Mark Guayhee by having just sat there for weeks doing nothing and they failed because they ended up signing Alexander Ezek they should have just left him at Newcastle okay before we go I'll fire out a few suggestions you guys can tell me whether you think these might happen before the deadline let's start with Julian Alvarez to Arsenal has been a lot of talk about that this summer so it's been a very public fallout with Barcelona's interest to take the athletic imagery player and Arsenal trying to swoop Miguel you wrote about that this morning I'm 50-50 on this but God probably just says no but I wonder on my condition about if an issue is deal people are getting increasingly if very incrementally optimistic about it as regards him going to Arsenal but it still feels there might be too much to do I'd let it go for Friday deadline okay ends if an end is to Man City Rich do you see that one happening now that they have sold Nico Gonzalez yeah I think it probably will I think it probably shouldn't again I'd just say leave him at Chelsea let him stew so in someone else but yeah I think that might happen okay Man United seemed pretty settled off the belabor but a lot of fans would like to see a left back come in do you see that happening there's a little bit of talk about Lewis Hall at Newcastle Newcastle and Newcastle being adamant that that won't happen they won't sell him that doesn't feel like they necessarily need to or want to so what do you see that happening they don't have the money for Lewis Hall at all yeah so if they get a left back it won't be here okay yeah they've been looking at Balda and Salinas as well I think they might wait for Lewis Hall for a future window okay final one I'll throw at you Cody Gack post been a little bit of talk about him leaving Liverpool potentially going to Tottenham again feels like Liverpool could do with retaining him given the state of their squad injury to Ekitek at the moment do you see Cody Gack pro leaving Liverpool before the deadline they can only let him leave if they get two forwards in and one of those forwards would have to be able to play center forward as well as Wenger so when you put all those things together it feels unlikely to me yeah I don't think so I think Liverpool end up with actually three coming in and one going out but I mean not really who goes out actually also in terms of Liverpool spending we talked about squad cost ratios I know Tottenham's you know they've got Jay Z selling out concerts and they've got a lot of revenues coming in but surely they can't afford to be spending this much money on Tanali and Savio and Marmouge and Gack Polk and I will see what the numbers say at the end of the season and it's now season by season isn't it rather than to every three years so we'll know in March I think which clubs are at risk of breaching the rules but they've already spent an absolute fortune yeah there is talk a one more forward as well that's been kind of doing the rounds like there's been a little bit of noise about Aussie men although nothing concrete enough yet to actually kind of report you know I wonder it's it's a remarkable summer radio I mean what what must Daniel Evie be thinking it's it's maybe noticeable that the Marmouge deal is alone with an obligation to buy so the money will be going out next year they put it they've basically put on Marmouge on the credit card yeah okay and you can you've still allowed what is it five years of amortization on these deals as well so I guess some of them yeah will be sort of spread out over the over the long term and they will hope to qualify for the Champions League and pay them off I suppose well suddenly there's a massive pressure to get into the Champions League it's the case yeah similar to Chelsea okay all right we will leave it there it's been good to speak and we'll catch up just after the transfer deadline falls next week I'm sure you guys will be very tired up to the small hours although there's always the deal sheet isn't there yeah yeah deal sheet all right very good I remember staying up to was it there's Danny drink water and I was doing the transfer life I was doing it was still was 27 that was summer 2017 I was in Malta for an England game oh yeah I was I was doing on the Guardian's transfer life vlog and I was up to about 3 a.m. just waiting for Chelsea to confirm Danny drink water didn't that went out too well that was not a great summer for Chelsea no that wasn't no obviously not and all right very good to get to speak to you and we will catch up next time thanks rich thanks Miguel thank you to producer Jamie Mcdonald as ever this is a independent podcast network production and we'll be back next time thank you for listening bye bye