The Pride's High-Wire Act: Orlando's Post-Double Churn & 2026 Tactical Paradox

2026 and we're kicking off x o g on the road. We're going to be traveling guys traveling. And to do it up on opening weekend, I have decided to do a dumb thing. I will be in Washington on the 13th at Rowdy Audi Boston on the 14th for the Boston Legacy debut against Gotham and at BMO for Angel City's game against the Chicago stars on Sunday. Yikes. If you are in any of those markets, be sure to come say hi before the game to Eric. And we plan to try and hit all 16 markets this year. I will be in New Jersey for Gotham FC against the Orlando pride on Sunday March 29th and watch this space for more dates to come. In the meantime, if you are a fan of the show, we are doing a big Patreon sale where you can get an annual membership for a big discount. So be sure to use the code in the show notes for that. And we have launched a store. We have to have an official x o g store where you can get all the best merch for the start of the NWSL season and Patreon members get 20% off with an exclusive discount code for that. So those are all the fun little goodies from us. Stay tuned for the show. Hello and welcome to Expected Own Goals. Tell me why ain't nothing but a heartache edition. I am your host, Eric Morgan. And I am Evan Davis was waiting with Bated Breath, which in Sinclair, he was going to go with there. That's Backstreet Boys. Oh, you're right. You're right. You're right, you're in the Lou Perlman verse. You got it. Welcome to day six of NWSL season preview week. Today we are talking about the Orlando Pride team that saw a great deal of talent walk out the door including their GM in the off season. And welcome to few new faces in, but Barbara Banda is Barbara Banda and she is fully healthy and that's scary. So to talk about that is another recent ish x o g f o p. Expected Own Goals friend of the pod Abigail Siegel of Defector the Nine and the Guardians. So enjoy that conversation. Universal Studios opened a new park in Orlando last year, but the biggest attraction in the city still remained the one and only defending champion Orlando Pride. Fourth place finish and a quarter final victory was not enough for them to repeat as champions and they roll into 2026. Healthier and potentially maybe not as strong as they've been in the past. Or is that true? Joining us to walk us through the 2026 Orlando Pride is a columnist and writer for Defector the Guardian the Nine and equalizer the one and only Abigail Siegel Abigail welcome back to the show. Hey thanks for having me good to be back. So first things first, how do you evaluate the Orlando Pride's 2025 campaign? It tells us the story of the Orlando Pride in 2025. Fourth place on points, the underlying data suggests that that was probably about right their journey ended in the semi finals. What did you see from Orlando wire to wire last year? Yeah, I mean in 2025 they were coming off of a 2024 that was they won the double and so they was totally a big target on their back. And for good reasons, they won the shields with an unbeaten streak that was a record. And then they won the championship which is hard to do. Often in the NWSL the teams that do well in the regular season can stumble in the playoffs. And so to have one both coming in to a new season with largely the same squad, like obviously they're going to be top contenders sort of apex predator. And then we saw that even though they had the same squad, they did stumble a bit. They had some rough patches including like a really long, winless streak. Even though they've played okay, it was just really sort of difficult to see that they just couldn't find a way to win for a really long time. But they still managed to finish top four. They pulled it together kind of. They had a really strong quarter final and arguably also a strong semi final. They just couldn't couldn't stick it to Gotham before Gotham struck back. So yeah, so I think 2025 was obviously a disappointment compared to 2024. But the pieces are there in a way because they sort of almost went through that adversity of you know having gone through all that struggle, having to sort of regroup after losing Barbara Banda to injury. I feel like it you know, they can only make them well, can't only make them stronger, but hopefully it'll make them stronger and more resilient in 2026. The maybe the biggest thing that they did was C. Haley Carter exit for the Washington spirit. Kaelin Carducci, formerly the GM for the Kansas City current, was brought in. One thing that has jumped out about their offseason is just how much turnover there's been. A lot of very significant players have left either through free agency or transfer from Emily Sam's to Carson Pickett, Allie Brazier, formerly Allie Watt, Simone Charlie, Kaelin Adenner, is probably going to miss most of the year for family leave. Organ Goetrot went overseas. Preskitch Olivia is in Angel City now. Grace Chanda, thanks to all of the injuries and all of the stops and starts in her Orlando journey left the team as well. And on the other side, aside from Haley Mace, there isn't maybe a blockbuster offseason acquisition. What have you made of their offseason so far? And what do you think it reflects in Carducci's ambitions and how they might interface with what Mark Wilf wants this team to look going forward? Yeah, I mean, honestly, all the players that left especially Brazier and Pickett and Sam. Those are really big losses. And also Charlie, you know, once she came back from my injury, she was putting in good creative effort. Those are really big losses for this team. Pickett and Brazier did a lot to create offensive chances, a lot. And I remember watching games and hoping that they would put Pickett in because she was such a game changer. And then, when she was healthy, she was really, really contributing. And then Sam's like, she was named Best Defender of 2024. And for good reason. So these are really critical pieces that have left. And I think part of it is you can't necessarily diagnose. Like, oh, these things are wrong in the team blah, blah, blah. Like players have all kinds of reasons for moving and moving between teams is, you know, something that happens in pro sports. I think it seemed like Seb Hines was acting as general manager for a bit between Carter and Carducci. It's just funny. It was funny timing with when Carducci came on board because it seemed like a lot had kind of already happened in the offseason. And it's sort of unclear, I guess, like how much had to do with Harvard versus just choose sort of handed a situation and as, you know, tried to make the best of it. Obviously, last season Orlando brings in Jackie O'Valle, but does so right as they lose Barbara Banda, the two have never really played together. Seb Hines had a real adjustment going from having sort of a talismanic striker to needing to create offense. How do you evaluate his 2025? I think he struggled. I'm sure he struggled with the team, you know, like I don't, I think he had to do a lot of tinkering to figure out like how to pull this team back. And I mean, even before Banda was out, they weren't sort of, you know, performing at the same level that they had in 2024. I think also like when you have, you know, new players coming into the league, like, you know, it can take some time for them to get adjusted. And so I feel like people were, you know, and I was really hyped about O'Valle coming in and then she, you know, wasn't quite the superstar. And, you know, so we'll see if that can develop. Yeah, I mean, I honestly feel like other than sort of the tinkering on the field, like, I think when a team is struggling, like, a coach can do a lot to, you know, affect team morale and either a good way or a bad way. And based on what, you know, we've seen it seems like he, you know, has the trust of the locker room. And yeah, I mean, they managed to figure it out. And then, you know, I watched a press conference they did a few weeks ago. And, you know, they were, everyone was seeming like pretty confident. And, you know, players up another roster were, we're seeming pretty confident in the team. So, you know, I feel like, hopefully, I think he seems to have the trust of the team, which is sort of the biggest thing a manager can have. Another area of significant loss this obviously is just like taking 2024's stalwart defense and basically hacking it to pieces through various departures and absences. What do you sort of see your land of defense looking like this year? How do you, how do you rate what they've done? Do you feel like they're even, like, still a piece or two away? This is one of the things that, you know, because we haven't seen them actually, you know, play in a real game yet. Like, we don't know how they're the pieces that we don't know as much about are coming along. Like, Nicole Payne and Hannah Anderson and then Zara Vouchi. We don't, we don't quite know how they're developing. And the press conference hides in, you know, express confidence, but obviously he's going to. I was also reading an article in the mainland about this like something that was, you know, so key to their 2024 success was like obviously the defensive line, but it seemed like everybody on the pitch had such like a defensive mentality. And it seems like a little bit of that was lost in 2025. And of course things, you know, are going to change, but I'll be curious, I guess, to see even if, you know, the proper like capital D defensive line might not quite be as strong as the past couple of years. If they can sort of get back that sort of like gritty, you know, everyone is, everyone is doing defense all over the field kind of thing. Yeah. And how they pull that off is an interesting question. I mean, they've, they're lousy with fullbacks, but there are not a lot of centerbacks available right now. As we mentioned, the deniers on family leave. And you bring in Anderson from Chicago, if you want to blame it on Chicago fine, but she wasn't great there. And then you have 35-year-old Huffielli who can never stay healthy. And Zara Chavoshi who got a cup of coffee last year, but hasn't really been tested. Like how do they, how do they shore that up? Like I kind of pitched the idea and when we were batting around formations that is carry a bellow potentially a candidate for moving inside. I mean, she spent her entire career on the left either as a winger midfielder or as a leftback, but given her years now under Heinz's system, could she function as a central defender to just be a steady hand of the till? Who knows? I feel like, you know, more and more recently, like we've seen coaches like move players around. So maybe. One of the funny things that I remember, Haley Carter talking about in back in 2024 when we talked, you were about this is just the Orlando desire to have players that were players first in interchangeable pieces. And so I think the idea that like they have a bunch of dynamic pieces that we haven't seen fit together does kind of read for me right now, even though Carter's gone Heinz was very obviously bought into exactly this philosophy. My pitch for their centerback solve is to bring Haley McCutchen back and do sort of like a Julie Johnston, Julie Ertsmove. She's such a talented two-way midfielder as it as it is right now. I wonder if we won't see hurt some centerback, but it does really feel like there's a lot of room for experimentation. I mean, how many, you know, Evan put together this this rundown, but how many like innings starters does this Orlando team even have right now as like clearly we know where they're going to be day one? Yeah, that's right. Like a lot of players like a lot of players that are going to be starters, like we actually don't quite know where they even go. Like, you know, Marta can play at the nine, but also in the midfield. We have Viay can play on other side. I'm just like looking at the lineup you guys made, which is kind of cool. And I think again, like if everyone is sort of bought into the system and, you know, to each other. And, you know, Seb Heinz has like, as we've said, like has had to like figure things out before. So yeah, so hopefully they can be flexible and resilient and, you know, figure things out. Marta is about to join the age 40 club of whom there are, I believe, only two, maybe three other players in NWSL history. I think every offseason we ask if there's a Marta succession plan. Grace Chant has seen like she was going to be that player. And then obviously things did not go the way they wanted with her. And also like Marta while not not reaching her career heights could like still do a job when asked, is this the year where she now gets relegated to the bench? Or is she just still too trusted by Heinz to drop? I think we can't know until the season starts. And I mean, I feel like over the last two years, like, you know, she's had sort of ups and downs. Like, and her downs are never, you know, poor play, but you know, some like she has sort of varying frequencies of the flashes of brilliance, you know. So I think there's, there's not really a way to to predict it at this point with her, I would say. Yeah, she's starting from a very high height when we're talking about her production. Right. It's all relative. Yeah. She's a, she's a member of the Christine Sinclair Emeritus class where you're just like, I guess you'll just keep going. Yeah. Like if Marta's still playing it 45, I guess that's if there was anybody, you could do it. It's probably her. And you got any sense of just to build on Eric's idea about McCutchen moving into central defense. That would open up a spot in midfield for Luana to regain a starting job. Have you gotten any sense of where she is in her health timeline? Like last year, she finally got to work herself back in and get some professional minutes after a long struggle with cancer. Is she ready to go on opening day? Yeah. I don't, I haven't seen anything, but they did give her a contract extension, right? And I feel like, you know, even though they, you know, they all, everyone at the team seems like a family or whatever. Like I don't think they would give someone a contract extension just to, you know, be a symbol. So I don't know. I feel like that's that's a good sign. I mean, I think, you know, even if her physical health isn't quite back. I mean, I just have no idea. She's definitely, has got the mentality piece down, you know, she sunk in that, that penalty kick in the dying moments of the quarter final, which was pretty cool. Yeah. It was a, yeah, it was a clean X moment. Yeah. Oh, I was crying. It was a weepy, it was a weepy, weepy moment. I couldn't cry. I was, well, I was crying. I was crying Seattle dogs at the time. Oh, God. Crying from over ingestion. I, I suppose the, the other thing, like we were talking about it, I'm going to circle back to this sort of band Ovaev at all. This is a really top heavy team. We saw in Bando and down there was a huge drop off in production. How much is Orlando's season dependent on Barbara Bando's health? And we should say that we have gotten reports that she's tearing it up in preseason. So she seems like she's ready to go full 90 in March. But I'll leave it over to you. Just what, how much, how much, how much production is she soaking up ultimately? I mean, obviously not a blessing in disguise for Bando. But in a way, hopefully the time that she was totally unavailable, you know, and then they went through this sort of struggling period, but they had to figure out how to move forward without her. And so hopefully now they can sort of have a more diverse range of attacking options and just aren't doing the thing that they, you know, did in the 2024 final where they just take it up to her and hope she does something crazy. And because she is Barbara Bando, she can do that. But, you know, it would probably be nice for her and for the rest of the team to not have to do that. So hopefully now as she's back and healthy, like she can, you know, continue doing what she does best. But also they can sort of figure out how to, how to not lean on her quite as much. Yeah. I mean, getting her in Ovae on the same field is, you know, very, very delectable sounding. Moving on, we're going to ask you to roll play a little bit as Caitlin Carducci. You have the ability to sign one player before the season. It doesn't have to be a specific player. What role are you trying to fill? You got to go center back. I mean, we've talked about it. You're missing Emily Sam's and you're missing Kylie Nidina and there's not really a given, I mean, you have half ALA when she's, when she's good, you know, when she's on, she's, she's pretty solid. But that's only one set, like one of two. And that's not even, you know, a consistently healthy one. So you've got to go center back. Maybe Haley Mase, lots in there. But I agree with you, there's a, there's a real question mark about like what the center back position will look like in Orlando. Not a years of stability. Not a lot. Yeah, not a lot of teams who think they can compete for titles suddenly have to completely overhaul their central defensive pairing, especially a team that loves and takes pride in their defensive reputation. Last year, they finished on fourth. Again, the underlying data basically backed that up. The American soccer analysis projection model pegs them for fourth place yet again. And whatever concerns we might have about other areas of the field, that does kind of answer our question about like Barbara band is outsized influence on the squad for you looking at this roster right now. Where do you think the 2026 Orlando pride finished the regular season? I agree. I think top half of the teams that make it into the playoffs. You know, I think like, it's, you know, especially I think about this with the 2024 squad. Like I feel like they made magic out of a team that people hadn't rated. And I think the fact that they know how to win and they they've created this culture that is a very much a winning culture. And I think, yeah, even though there are going to be challenges this year, there are challenges last year, there are challenges in 2024. I think that, you know, despite again, the relative, perhaps disappointing offseason for them, I think it's still a really strong team. And to hear Haley McCutchen tell it, the barbarians are perpetually at the gates, even when they don't actually exist. So maybe to have a couple actually exist in 2026 might help them. Evan, where do you got them? Do you want me to go? Where did I put them? I think my mind is constantly changing about these rankings. I think I've got them, I think I've got them in fifth. I think they're probably closer to the likes of North Carolina, Louisville, maybe Portland right now in overall talent, but Banda plus Ovae just seems like a no-brainer for running other defenses ragged. So I think that's probably that's probably right there going to be in the hunt for a home playoff game, but I think they might just come up short. Yeah, I'll be low totem here. I have them seventh. And I think it has everything to do with the uncertainty in that back line, which I think has knock-on effects to uncertainty in that midfield. And then over alliance on two attackers, look, if it hits, it's going to be devastating. I don't, I think the ceiling is very high, but I also think that this is a team that like is potentially just in a big transitional season. And while I don't think that they, I certainly think they have the talent on paper to be a playoff team, you lose Ovae or Banda again for any period of time. And then where do the goals come from? And like how reliant are you on these two key attacking nodes to create something for you? Again, I think probably we all agree that the, you know, outside of those top teams, the middle of the pack is going to look probably a fair amount like the middle of the pack did last year, which is to say not a lot of daylight between maybe fourth and ninth, but I'm lower on them this year just because the uncertainty, I can talk myself into other teams having less uncertainty than I can with Orlando. Yeah, I was going to say I think uncertainty is the key because again, like, I don't know, I feel like every season there are players who no one expects to really have a breakout season or be really strong. And then it's like, wow, like you're, you're playing really well. And I think I guess Orlando just has a lot of those kinds of players. Or at this point, we just can't, we just can't know. Yeah, yeah, it's tough. Yeah, a rare team where coaching and system might actually really help play players up above their natural talent. Regardless, seven complimentary, not derogatory, but I certainly do hope that the one thing they do improve on as we say every year is please get butts in the seats. Yeah, please mark, Will, can you put some marketing money into getting butts in the seats? I know it's Orlando. Nobody wants to be outside in the summertime, but Orlando City packs them in. So I think you can probably make it work for the Orlando pride as well. You know, as you may only have three or four more seasons to see Marta, you know, yeah, get them while they're hot. Yeah, you can follow Abigail on social media at Abigail Segal and read her writing in defector in the nine and in equalizer for season preview work and a lot of great content come the start of the end of the cell regular season in just a week's time. Abigail Segal, thank you so much. Yeah, thanks. Thank you for having me. Thank you so much for listening. I'll be sure to do all the things you're supposed to do with podcasts. Rate us five stars. Drop a kind review in your pod catcher of choice and follow along with the feed if you haven't done so already. Tell all of your friends about us if they don't know about the show up to this point. And if you want to follow us on social media, you can do so at X own goals. That's the letter X own goals on all social platforms. Keep your eyes out on YouTube, Instagram and TikTok for a lot of cool exclusive video content there. And if you believe we've made an own goal, please email us at XOG at X own goals dot com. That's the letter X OG at the letter X own goals dot com looking forward to our next season preview very soon.