The Closed-Shop Cartel and Football's Structural Epoch: TSS Mailbag Analysis

Music Welcome to the Total Soccer Show and our latest batch of listener questions! On this episode we're asking what's going on with ProRele Mexico We're considering Soccer's biggest one season wonders and we're asking who is the true LeBron James of Soccer? Everybody's asking. My name's Ryan Bailey joining me today! Taylor Rockwell, say hi Taylor, how are you? I'm doing well Ryan. The LeBron one really took me some time. I had to map out the career as best as I understood LeBron's career. I think I have an answer but I'm excited for that one and all of these because I always love a listener question episode. Let me do plenty in the mailbag for us to get our teeth into Mr. Rockwell joining us to do so. Joe Lowry, all the way from Casagrande Arizona, hi Joe, how are you? It's just a delight to be here. I'm fascinated by that LeBron James of Soccer question because Taylor has taken it best I can tell in a direction that I didn't. In my wife when I asked her to her took a direction that I didn't, which made me think that what was an obvious easy answer is actually a much more nuanced discussion than I ever imagined. Oh, so it's Jamie Carriger. Correct. Nice. Oh, I'm glad we got it out in the way early. Very good. Graham, rather than hi, how are you? I'm good. Ryan Bealey. How is New York? How is the OB and B from the 222? Well, I presume you. You stayed there because we're out. Where else would you stay? You require a hole in the floor? That's correct. I don't believe New York City has any other lodgings available. So I went straight back there and borrowed into the hole in the floor from our World Cup HQ. Thank you for asking, Graham. It was wonderful. Doing a day trip to New York is a thing that is tiring when you have to take two flats and at least one of them is delayed. It's great. I love it. At least it's a nice late relaxing city that famously sleeps a lot. So when you got there, that made up for it. Yes, indeed. No bustle or hustle was seen at all in New York City. Thank you for asking, Graham. Very good. All right, plenty to get into in this list of questions and mail back before we get there. I'm not sure I've ever mentioned it on this fee, but we've got a Patreon Patreon.com slash total soccer shows where you get our bonus content, including, but not limited to a bonus listener question. And this one is one maybe earmuffs for Tottenham fans for this listener question, because it's from some stretch of the imagination, great handle, who's asking whether they should be underwhelmed by Spurs' summer signings, which may still be going as we record at this point to be fair. So if you want to hear that one and what we think of Tottenham's hot spurs summer, I just, I don't know, maybe we'll call it that, but tune in to Patreon Patreon.com slash total soccer show. We've got access to our discord there and lots of other goodies as well. All right, why don't we get to our main feed questions, including this one. It's David from Tampa, who's coming with this one. Can you explain what League of Remekies is doing with their breakaway from the regular pyramid? So Taylor, Mexico for suspended pro rel in 2020 during the, you know, COVID pandemic. Remember that? Yeah, but like, but like temporarily for sure. Yeah. Just go back. Just like while the thing is Graham, maybe it's not because they decided relatively recently they ain't gonna bring it back. So Taylor, why, why did they suspend? Why did they hate pyramids? Is it an anti Egyptian thing? Let's get into it. What are you thinking? I mean, money, as always, is the answer. First and foremost, when it comes to anything business related and soccer. It is, it is like there are aspects of this that I think are understandable. And I think are probably useful for growing the league and stabilizing the Mexican league. But then the removal of pro rel is a little bit more of a challenge because essentially this all connects to a larger shift away from the league structure as it has existed. To my understanding, it's basically there were four changes proposed voted upon approved. There was an uncoupling from the Mexican Federation. So that the league would now be independent of like Mexican Federation oversight and management. And that seems less like not quite significant, but less controversial than it might seem. Because on the surface, that feels like it's like a coup and they're separating and they are. It's a little bit like what the primary league did. But it is also so that there is less kind of, I think, perceived bureaucratic oversight and more streamlining of decision making. But then there's the restructuring of the league. There's a change in the playoff structure. Then there's a move towards the franchise system where you have to buy in basically to be a part of the league. And then finally, there's an end to multi club ownership. Again, I think that makes sense if you are trying to make your league more efficient. Having two teams in the same division owned by the same person is a little bit of a conflict of interest to put it mildly. But I think within all of those plans, there is sort of a if not outright removal of pro rel. If it is, if it does end up kind of being involved in some way, it feels very similar to what the super league would have been. The proposed super league in UEFA where it would have been like, yeah, there's pro rel, but you have to pay the $100 million expansion fee and you have to do this and you have to have that and there needs to be this. And so it would have just made it borderline impossible for any team to actually gain gain promotion and for that to happen, somebody would have to be relegated. So then you kind of have that can of worms and what it feels like is at the end of the day, we're going to have 18 clubs in the league. Maybe that ends up expanding to 20 with the expansion fees, but it does mean that we will have very likely limited to no pro rel for the Mexican league. So is there a scenario where there was some teams that say got relegated before they close off the pro rel. Who are sort of knocking on the door saying hang on, we we want to wait back in this and surely it's not popular with fans. I mean, knocking on the door in terms of taking it to court and basically saying that this is not allowed, which is what happened, which is why I think there was the uncoupling from the federation. Because now you can claim to be your own independent organization, like your own for profit, independent organization at that. And so then you're allowed to make your own rules. Like, and I think that is sort of what this shift is the result of is that lawsuit saying like, well, no pro rel was there. You have to keep having pro rel, you can't just cut these teams out. Or if you do, you have to guarantee them a lot of money to make up for it. But I think this has been the way around it. And it does seem like it's been pretty pretty controversial across the board. I've seen European pundits talking about it, American pundits, Mexican pundits. And I think it's also like sort of in my mind folded into the larger conversation that present about Mexico backing in fantino, and they're potentially being split there. And it just feels like there are a lot of big decisions happening simultaneously in conca-caf. This one though, I think largely seems to be about owner protections, guarantees of revenue, and basically looking at majorly soccer. And I think liking a lot of what they see from the structural, if we're bad, it doesn't really penalize us so we can just keep on going and making money. I think all of that appeals to the owners in the Mexican league. And not just in the Mexican league, I'll tell you that much. I think that appeals to your sports owners everywhere. And I am very interested to see how this pro rel dispersion continues or if it continues over the next decades. Ryan, you talked about how it must be unpopular with fans. That's one question I asked John Arnold about this. John Arnold's over USA Today, one of one of the foremost experts on soccer in the Americas. And I was asking him, has there been pretty major blowback in Mexico about this whole thing? And his response was, the thing is that I'm just reading straight from what's happening with John. John says that the thing is that even though Mexico is a soccer loving country, it's a very casual country. And the example he used was, think about it as if the NFL were like, hey, we're going to do something crappy. And Cowboys fans are probably not really paying attention enough to care a whole lot beyond like, hey, what time on Sunday do my boys play? That was John's perceptions. You have a whole country full of club America and Chivas fans who really are bothered about this because their teams are above it. And the thing I didn't maybe realize in all this is the lower division soccer landscape in Mexico is extremely fragmented where you have the expansion on which is the second tier. And it's now sort of going to be remade more or at least that the idea has been to remake it more into a developmental league. That's what Ariel was talking about, the president of League of Mekis. And really the third and fourth tier are extremely scattered and not terribly unified. That lower division landscape doesn't exist a whole lot. And so it does, I think the NFL comparison is a really apt one. Because in the NFL, you have fans from all over the country reading for teams that they're not even remotely geographically associated with. And maybe there's family ties, maybe there's watched them on TV one time. I do think America and Chivas and the giant clubs in Mexico have a sort of NFL-esque pull over large swaths of the population. So again, John knows more about this than I. So I would encourage listeners to go and read and watch some of the stuff that John's put out about this. Again, he was the first call that I made. But it is, it's fascinating to me that there would be a little bit less blowback. Also, you factor in the idea that Prorel has been gone now for a while in League of Mekis and things have sort of continued on. Maybe it's a little bit less jarring to at least many people in Mexico than I would have expected. Yeah, great. Anything to add here? Just that I have to imagine League of Mekis clubs and maybe the league itself have looked at MLS and how valuable MLS clubs are. Obviously geographically close to that league and bureaucratically as well with the collaboration between the two. And obviously MLS clubs always show up in those delight money tables as some of the most valuable clubs in the world. And I imagine they want a piece of that for themselves. And certainty is, is sparse in soccer and getting rid of relegation is a way to achieve that. So I think it's a shame. To a certain extent, I can sort of understand how MLS has ended up as a league without promotion and relegation because of the league's history and the way it's been built up over time. But to have that mobility between levels of the pyramid and then to get rid of it and also to use like a crisis as the Trojan horse to introduce it and leaves up a bad taste in the mouth. So I can't go overboard with that. I'm shocked Joe about the casualness that your reporting has been taken here with the fan base on mass. There are certain countries like in England, if you try to put a super league in, it's instant. No, you won't like it. If you try and do that, you won't like what's going to happen and it gets turned over immediately. So for the fan base not to protest a little bit or maybe they have a little bit. Just on that, I feel like in England and in the UK in general, there's much more of a collective spirit in that sense. Because with the super league, there wasn't the same level of blowback in Spain, for example, where I think the Spanish landscape is much more similar to what Joe was outlining where Barcelona fans are only interested in Barcelona. Real Madrid fans are only interested in Real Madrid. In a way, England might be the anomaly in the global landscape there rather than Mexico. So I didn't really have any insight on what the landscape would be like or what the culture would be like in Mexico. It's surprising to an extent, but we do see that in other countries as well. Yeah. Oh, sorry. Good job. I was just going to add on Prorel. I think it's been a, it has been a roading as I understand it in Mexico for a long time now, where it's not like they've been doing the three up three down thing cut and dry forever. That hasn't been happening. There have been criteria that second division clubs have to hit to reach the first division and some controversy around like, hey, we're going to get up, but you're not really going to get it because you don't need the criteria. And there's also been like this real modification of what the format actually looks like to make it more and more difficult and to send fewer and fewer teams up and fewer and fewer teams down. So I think the distinction I'm trying to make here is that it's not like they're going from three out three down all across this really well formed pyramid and everybody is really on board with that to no more Prorel. It's been this erosion of it as I understand it. And really, I think the sense that since COVID, it was going to be an excuse. I think you were saying this, Graham, to just never bring it back again. Anyway, Taylor, go ahead. Just I think that's a really, really important point, Joe. And like I have two things. The first is that yeah, and then you look at like the way a lot of South American leagues do it where they've changed it. So like actually, it's like league position over three season. Yeah. And you start to have adjustments. I think a lot of the time to cater to large clubs who've maybe had a down season and suddenly it's like, well, we can't have a season without them or them. So it's three seasons instead of this season or however they end up doing the calculation. I think there is a little bit of erosion in that way of like the fundamental ideas of Prorel. But I also think it probably requires a deeper understanding of how soccer works in the country. And Joe, that's why I think reaching out to John is such a smart idea. A little bit annoyed that I didn't do it because at the end of the day, like there is an idea of like cultural relativism and sporting relativism. Like there are plenty of stories about Liga, Mecky's teams exploiting loopholes and multi club ownership being a problem where you have. I think it was Pachuca and Leon are owned by the same owner or were. And I think like they agreed to play their first fixture. Like they only use their U23 players against each other, both teams so that they could rest players for like the start of another game. Like there's a lot of potential collusion that you can sort of like, oh no, we were just both doing experimental lineups. Like what are you talking about? Like you have plausible with deniability, but you have competitive issues like that. You have owners like running their clubs into the ground and not paying players and then sort of just jumping ship and moving elsewhere and starting a new club. And I think this is all through that seen through that lens. This is a way to basically make it so that it's one. I mean, you could call it a cartel. You could call it a closed system. It's what most Americans wording institutions are, but it's then you have this closed pool where theoretically everybody then cares much more because things are much more valuable. But because you have more competitive interests in a smaller pool. And so then maybe things are taken more seriously. Maybe there's more money to be spread around more evenly. Like there is a reason for doing this aside from just making more money. I do think that's a pretty big part of it. So I think like there's always a little bit of understanding of like the culture and situation before applying like at least for me like my understanding of things. Because if the super league tried to come about again, I'd be pretty angry about it. With League of Mekis doing this, I kind of don't feel like I know enough about the situation on the ground to know if this is truly a terrible idea or if it is a response to perceived problems. Okay, yeah, fair enough. Dave from Tampa. Thank you very much for your question. We're going to take a quick pause when we come back. We're talking about the biggest one hit wonders in soccer and much more. Join us then. Total soccer show. Welcome back to our list of questions. Everybody. Bobby Drex has been in touch with this one. Thank you very much, Bobby. Who are some of the biggest one hit wonders in soccer, meaning they have crazy statistical seasons. And then they never reproduce that season like that ever, ever again. Graham, there's one name that sticks out to me. Is it me? That's the one I'm doing the celebration for you. It's got me. Me too. Swansea 2012 13 absolutely smashed it. And I think it was kind of injuries that unfortunately had him trail off after that. But he shone bright for a single season for Swansea in the Premier League. And then and then went by by. That was it. Right. Yep, 18 goals in his debut Premier League season for Swansea. And then two seasons after that. He, I believe, did not score another goal and then was released the next season and retired at the age of 31. So he was here for a good time, not a long time. Me too. I remember him fondly. He was he was fun while he was good in the Premier League for Swansea. And a couple other or three other nominations from me. He's not quite on the Me too scale because I don't know if anyone is on the Me too scale. But Sandra Ramirez, I think deserves a mention broke through at Barcelona. And then joined Malaga where he scored 14 goals in his first season there. And then he didn't score another lead goal for the next five seasons as he bounced around a whole host of teams. And I don't believe actually has a team anymore. Amir Zaki is another street sports forget player scored 10 goals for Wigan in the 0809 Premier League season. And then as far as I can see, never scored another lead goal at again in his career. And then one final nomination from me, Rocky Santa Cruz. Nineteen goals for Blackburn Rovers in the 07-08 Premier League season. Got a big move to Manchester City right at the start of the Abu Dhabi era. And was just unable to score regularly and became a peripheral player for them. I do believe he has, he's had a bit of like a late career Renaissance. Very late. Yeah, he's still going, right? He's still kicking it. 45 years old starting for club Nassinello and Paraguay's top flight. What a absolute legend. That's incredible. I can't believe he's still playing. But yes, he and the Premier League, at least he was, he was certainly a one-season wonder. Nice. Very good. Joe, any other norms? Yeah, Grims decimated my list. I mean, just keep playing. Sorry, I took a machete to it and Fruit Ninja his way through. I think this is such an interesting question because I had a really hard time coming up with answers. And I don't know if that's because I'm bad at my job possible. Or if it's because soccer doesn't really work in a super one-hit wonder-y format where in general, if you're going to have a wonder season, it's going to be really difficult for you not to basically end up at the level of your talent somewhere else. Like it's not like, I'm trying to give a good example from another sport. This isn't a great example. It was basketball's on the mind. Michael Beasley was this really hot prospect coming into the NBA draft a long time ago. And he had a lot of talent and it just never clicked for him in the NBA. Well, if that happened for a player in the Premier League, maybe they could go to Liga and they could have things clicked for them again, right? Just dropping down the ladder is not really possible in the other one-hit wonder territory. Go, Grim. And tennis. Emma Radikanu went in the US open. She's basically not one another since. That's that's surely what we're talking about here because where do you go? Like you don't drop down another level like tennis as tennis. You get a lot of sponsorships like Grim. That's true. You do. Job well done on that front, I say. So I think it's interesting that maybe these examples don't come around as often as it feels like they should given just how many soccer teams and players that are on the planet. But the high profile ones like even Santa Cruz is a fun example, Grim. Like he still does decently well. There's just a lot of ground between while didn't impress at Manchester City under their new oil regime. And didn't like wash out like there's a whole lot of middle ground in that area. And I feel like most of these players end up in that middle ground. And Joe plays fruit Ninja. I learned important things today. I had to Google what that was. I had two other nominations, but I think they support Joe's argument pretty convincingly. The first would be a public see say at Newcastle. Like he has the break through crazy 13 goals and 14 games. One point like goal every 1.1 games. And then I think for the rest of his time at Newcastle, it's one goal every 4.3 games. So he has this crazy hot streak and then cools off considerably. But again, to Joe's point, like there's still goals and solid performances in there. It's just he has one like particular period of like completely on fire. Well, and I was sorry to just to really underscore that point. Even before that, I just pull up his empty ref page because I don't remember any of this. He scored 22 goals in the Bundesliga for Fryberg one season. Like even the one season wonders have had multiple one season wonders. Anyway, keep going. And then similarly, the only other one that came to mind like on a personal level was maybe Adnan Yanazai from Manchester United who kind of like has that debut season where suddenly it's like, are they going to be able to keep hold of this guy? Like he's this breakthrough phenom and with that in mind, I think it's like 27 games played four goals, three assists. And I think he like does better than that was associated at times. But I think it's for like where the hype was relative to where the team was at the time. I felt like, oh, that's the next big thing. That's the guy that they're going to build around. And then obviously he is not so maybe he's in that conversation, put them to your point. Like there's still seasons where he does statistically better and continues to play and has a fine time with sociodod. So it's, it's definitely a bit of a mixed bag. It is a rare occurrence that I think I expected it to be. There was a fun period with Yanazai. Was it eight nations he could be eligible for? Yeah, it was a lot. And there was a big list and everyone was like, which ones are you going to pick? That was a fun time. Federico McKayda, is he a one hit wonder for like one game? Just one for one goal. Oh, even one goal. I think he is two and then he never does any again. Yeah. That was one one that's come to mind during this conversation for me. I'll run this one past you as well. Do you remember when Valsburg won the Bundesliga? 2009. So graffiti. Graffiti. Graffiti. So he was the top score of 28 goals. He'd never done anywhere near that numbers before that season. Since then, he's only had one season in in the Saudi pro. Do you a pro league? Excuse me. Already got 24. He's come basically nowhere near that height of being Bundesliga top scorer and champion. And he said I got 20, 20 something goals that season though. He got 26 goals. So 28 and 26 for the two top scorers on that side. That season. So graffiti or graffiti is my nomination there for a one season wonder. I think I think if it's a bill. Love it. Yeah. Good. Excellent. Very good. Bobby Drake. Thank you very much for that question. Let's go to Sir Kenneth of Cydon, who's submitted this one throughout this court. I don't know if this one's going to upset Joe or please him. I'm going to read it out. That was your coded question we've ever heard. Unless there are questions. Let's find out. Here we go. What XG value are we allowed to say should have scored there? Or is that always a band phrase? For example, Sir Kenneth mentioned a recent Cydon buffet miss which had a 0.96 XG. Joe, what you are the you are the steward of should have scored there. Let us know what you think. I love that we're getting this question. It is incredibly Joe coded. I just feel like the soccer discourses comes a long way that we're getting XG questions. And not just like what is XG, but also how can we use it in the everyday vernacular? This fills me with joy. We all met Kenneth Cydon right in California. Yeah, oh yeah. Did anyone see like Joe and Kenneth like sneak off into a corner and have like a conversation which they planned this question. I feel like I just think it's a playing question. I may have I may have tossed a fiverr in his way. It's a possibility. I'm not going to say I didn't do that. Might be Joe. Joe is an NBA now. He got that because of hanging around with the night just seeing it. So yeah. Yeah. Sorry Joe. I'm going to I'm going to start. I'm going to start. I can do it. I really believe I can do it. Let's go. The problem that I have with the idea of like, oh, he should have scored is that people often use it to describe chances that are really, really difficult chances. So I love this question for that reason because it lets me do my spiel which is I think people see like a I don't know a shot from the middle of the box. So there's a couple of bodies in the way, but they had at least a second to get off the shot. And they think, oh man, that is probably a coin flip of whether that ball goes in. No, it's not like a scoring goal is hard. It's scoring goals was easy. We would have eight goals in every game. Scoring goals is way harder than the average person thinks it is. I don't know if any of you guys had this experience. I had that a little bit during the World Cup of people wondering why people didn't shoot more often. Like, oh, they're like 35 yards out, but they have a moment to pick up their head. Why shouldn't they just shoot? Or people thinking that chances that didn't go in were like horrific misses. And the reality is even the best players miss chances. And aren't they sort of the ones that get to set the standard for scoring goals? Like, literally no one is better at putting the ball in the back of the net than Leo Messi. He is the greatest soccer player of all time. The way the ball moves off his foot is different than any player that's ever played this game. He's horrible at taking penalties. Like, there is something even if it's mental for Messi in that instance. Maybe it's Robert Lewandowski looking around the goal. They're going to miss shots. They do miss shots. If they made every shot, we would have, again, a hundred goals a game. So it's just not a reasonable way to think about shots going in with that being said. I do think there's a threshold that I've decided deep in my heart, even though I'm not going to adopt this, this in my personal vernacular, that I'm okay with. I think if you're at an XG value of like 0.5, if it's basically a coin flip, you're getting closer to the ballpark. But still, if it's a coin flip, I don't think you can say should of. Like, 50-50 is not a should of. So I think as you're trending towards like... 51.9? 51.49. I can get on board with that even though I'm still not going to say this. I think if you're above 0.5 expected goals for a shot, you can at least make the argument like, well, it's better than 50%. You know, you sort of should have done it. I don't feel like in everyday life, if I have a 50% or a 51% chance of something, and I don't do it, I'm trying to think of a good example and I'm not coming up with a great one, I still don't think that means like, oh, it absolutely should have happened. I think you got to get closer and closer to 100 before I really feel good about that. Maybe you're in the 75 range, 75% chance penalty. I think we can get on board maybe with a penalty, which is a little above 75% average conversion. The specifics I'm a little less bothered about, so I will say 75% or more, it's 0.75, I guess I can get on board, but I just think fundamentally this is my own personal crusade against the idea of people thinking that goals are easier to score than they are. And it's just not true. So this wasn't something I was aware of until I guess I started this show and it is a bit of an epidemic in commentary where a player, there's one in particular, I'm sure I put it in our slide, it sticks my mind from like two years ago. And I'm sure it's John Hartson on a Celtic game. The goalkeeper kind of runs it of his box and the Celtic player has a shot from literally the halfway line. And John Hartson says words to the fact that I should have scored from there. What are you talking about from the halfway line? I mean, a ridiculous goal. John Hartson scored it, I wouldn't mean. No, he wouldn't have. Do you remember how John Hartson played? I do. He played Wimbledon. Well, we know that how many Wimbledon players were scored from the halfway line? Not John. One five and a guess. One five and a guess. One five and a guess. Yeah. But the one I've noticed is the most common should have scored is the header where the player is like straining to just make contact with the cross. And the commentators or the co-commentators will go, I should have scored. And I think that's the most, that's the most common one that does. Now that I've had my eyes open by Joe, it makes me tear my hair out. But I do think there are instances, same with Joe. Like there's a threshold. I remember the imbapage answer that weekend. It's a bit of a shocker. Like completely missed times as jump under no pressure at all about four, three or four yards out from goal. And he could have just like ran into the ball, not even sure he needed to jump. So that that probably is a should have scored moment. And but for the most part, I think commentators are way too liberal with its use. I agree with that last part, especially that I think a lot of the times it ends up feeling sort of like. The commentator has a point to prove or has a particular issue with a certain player. And so they're going to focus in on like, oh, he should have done better there. And it's just like, I don't, that seemed like a difficult one to me. But I also think, and this is like much more of a, you know, a feelings answer, which is my brand, I guess. Like my hesitation is with less with the numbers and more with the assumption of should. Because I think there are always a million factors that go into every single opportunity. And it's really easy to dismiss a lot of them with a blanket statement like I should have done better. But like a lot of times like if the ball is spinning weird way or bounces a weird way or there's just like a little touch or a little deflection that we can't see right away. It removes a lot of the nuance of the analysis and of actually watching that moment and seeing what happened to dismiss it with, oh, he should have done better there. That's got to be better. And I think also for me should implies that it's easy or that like I could do better. And and I maybe that's just because I choose to like see it that way. But for me that makes it an element of like if I'm saying he should have done better. I'm saying like I think I could have scored that effectively or a better player could have scored that. Which again is more of like an overt criticism that I'm less comfortable with. And that's why like I will generally go with something more like that's a bad miss or that's a shocking miss. Because at least then there's like opinion behind it. And I think I can back that up. Whereas this should aspect for whatever reason makes me feel like you should be scoring that. And if anything we've learned from soccer, it's that like there's no should. There is like like what happens in the chaos that results. But like should I think is such a like almost like judgmental term and dismissive at the same time that I think I just try to avoid it for that reason. I think I think that's fair. If I played devil's advocate though, I think the role of a commentator is to match the emotional energy of the moment. And when there is an opportunity, it's just happened like that. I think most fans of the team who have got the opportunity would be like, we should have scored that. I think simply on a human level, the commentators are matching that energy and matching that emotion. So that's what I'm causing. And regardless of how the shot or the chance has been modeled or given an XG number. I think if you think there's a chance that more than likely should have gone in. I mean, what are they going to say? Well, you know, they didn't score that well next time champ. Well, the more probably I think the saying that I love Ryan. I love that point. I've never considered that. And I think that is a phenomenal, phenomenal point. And I totally think there's something to it. Even if I don't think we're quite there. That says the color commentator. The last bit. Yeah, and I'm not good at that. Like everybody knows I'm two ones and zeroes to be that guy. I'll leave that for the play by play. But I do, I do think what you got to at the end there is important. You talked about it. If you think there's a better chance than not that that ball would have gone in or should have gone in. Like most shots aren't that, you know, like most, most shots. I know you were trying to remove the XG value from it. But just to add it back in, like most shots are like the average shot. I'll put it this way. The average shot is like 0.12 expected goals, 0.1. It's like the average, the average shot is not that shot. You know, maybe I can get on board with that Ryan with the sentiment for a truly great chance. And I think a truly great chance, anything over half an expected goal is an incredible chance. I mean, like if you could produce a couple of those every single game, that would be electric. I mean, that is, that's what you're trying to do as an attacking team. And it's really difficult. I just don't think the scenario describing where it's, it's like justifiable to put that much emotional energy to the point where you would say, oh, you should have scored there. I don't think that really exists. And also I will say, I don't think it's the job of a neutral color commentator and neutral play by play to be like serving one fan base over the other necessarily either. So it's, I think, I think you're on to something. I think I agree. I just think there's better, like more real phrases that you could use that still carry emotional weight. And I don't know what they are. So maybe, maybe they're on it. But I think so. I think we could find that. Just swallow it. Just say a big swallow. Sure. I think that's fine. Say a big swear. Do a big swear instead. I think we're all the way there. But I like want to get in the boat that you're in because I think it's good. But I'm just not all the way there yet. Come in my boat. The only, the only, like, pundit that I think of who I have, like, trust to use that correctly is teary on re strangely. Because I feel like a lot of his analysis tends to be, like, a little bit more thoughtful. And I think a little bit aware that he's talking about a player that, like, he might have coached or will interact with or he was that player at a point. I also think he has the pedigree and ability to know, like, he should have scored that. Because unreve scored some goals himself. But he seems, like, when I think about him using that phrase, it's usually in more of a, like, he should be doing better. Like, and it's not quite, like, anger or disappointment and it's not faux outrage. It's usually almost just like, ah, that would have been a better game if he'd scored that goal. Like, he seems to use it in a way that I think, like, is how it should be used, which is to imply from experience what he thinks could have happened or should have happened. And I think he's one that I trust, I guess, to use it correctly. Whereas, like, Zlatan, I think with the, the Zlatan of it all, I think he always thinks everyone should have done better because he would have done better. And that's where, like, I, I enjoyed less from that perspective. Taylor, what was the phrase you used? You used there should have done better, right? I don't have as much of an issue with that. I also don't have as much of an issue with, like, should have put it on frame or should have put it on target. Just because, I mean, we see this in morally soccer all the time. If you, the goalkeeper will spell it, there'll be a deflection. It'll be a messy goal, like, you know, 90% of the goals that start out being scored are messy goals and come off a goalkeeper or something. So I don't, I don't mind that. I wish there were more messy goals and I'll be in games around of that kind. But I don't have as much of an issue with that while also accepting that can be misused as, as well. But, um, yeah, it's definitely cool, common color commentary as, as, as very difficult and don't listen to Joe. Joe's a very, very, very good, uh, cool commentator. Yeah. And I think you can do the emotional stuff. Do listen to Joe then in that case. Yeah. Do listen to that. He's good. So Joe, with the ultimate annoyance for you, be of a, if it was a point four or nine. And the person said, he, he should have scored there at the very least. He should have hit the target. Is that like a double whammy for you? Does that annoy you, doubly? It would, it would be the worst if it was like just an even worse chance in that. Like again, I don't, I don't count too much point four nine or point seven. Like what? There's a mushy middle in there. But yes, I think you're right on the money. Like, oh, you should have put that on frame. And we're going to go talk about shots on target now. And also you should have scored that. Yeah. That would do it for Joe. I think you're right to highlight like just how good a chance a 0.5 chance is because there's been, there's been times when I've gone and checked for them. I'm like, wow, that was a golden opportunity. Was that should have scored territory? And it's like 0.28. Wow. Like that seemed like it was going to be higher than that. So, yeah, I don't think people, a lot of people maybe don't realize like what, what 0.96 chance actually looks like. And that's where I am and kind of like should have scored territory. All right. Let's wrap this up before we get two bogged into semantics. If the XG is roughly over 0.5, can we say that the XSH, the expected should have, is also above 0.5. Yes, fatically, yes. I love that. That's, that we're going to claim that now. There we go. Math applied. So, Kenneth is silent. Thank you very much. Indeed for your question. Let's take one more break when we come back. We're talking about swap deals. And we're getting to it. The LeBron James of Soccer. Who is it? Let's find out. Join us then. So, no soccer show. Welcome back to our list of the questions. Cray has been in touch with this one via the Discord. Why don't you see more swap deals? It's so incredibly common in US sports. And it's a good way to solve problems for two teams at once. You have something we need. We've got something you need. Let's fix this. It seems like such an obvious choice. Why don't we see it more regularly? Graeme, we did see it this summer. We discussed it relatively recently. Brennan Johnson and Dwight McNeill doing the old palace everton swap a rue. But it is very rare in soccer. Why? So, I'm interested in the three-year insights because you have more knowledge of American sports, traditional American sports. But my perception is that the nature of the transfer market in soccer just gives soccer a completely different framing. Because to me, it seems like an American sports. You know, failed players are viewed in a slightly different way to soccer. Where if you fail in soccer, you're just on the scrap heap. I guess unless you're at Man City and you'll be sold a profit for some reason. But actually, I actually don't think that soccer clubs do look at the equation create lines as like an obvious choice. I think the nature of the transfer market means there will always be a player whose value is like more than another player. There's always going to be one player that's damaged goods or at least the lesser of the two players. What I do think is interesting is that in the age of PSR and whatever that is now, squad cards cost ratio only to get used to that one. I think that's changing the transfer market and soccer is actually moving closer to American sports in the way that like squads are constructed and how it's all a bit of a game of Tetris. And so maybe swap deals will become more common as teams try to find new ways to get around the rules as we saw with the Everton Crystal Palace one this summer. So I just think the way that teams build their squads in soccer is so vastly different that the framing of this is incomparable. I had a similar thought. I think the specific thing I would zero in on is that soccer transfers are just fundamentally more complex than trades in American sports, which is to say that it's not like you're just doing business with another team and that's the only part that you have to worry about. No, you have to agree to terms for a transfer or swap in this case with the team that you want to do business with. Yes, that's true and that's the same. You also have to then agree to terms with the players that are involved. It's not like in MLS where players can get traded or other American sports leagues or players can get traded without consent. The transfer fee in soccer is paid to the team that you're transferring. So if I want to buy Yunus Moussa from AC Milan, I have to agree with with Milan about a transfer fee. And that transfer fee is is the money I'm paying Milan to break the contract that they have with Yunus Moussa. I'm basically compensating them for cutting the contract short. And then if I, I don't know, whatever team I am, I did the Milan thing. Now I have to go to agree to a deal with Yunus Moussa and his people, right, his agent or intermediaries, whatever. I have to go and agree the term that he's going to be happy with. So it's not just the team I'm doing business with. It's a team in the player. Now double that. Let's do that with two parties going in each direction with one team going to another team, one team going to that first team, one player, another player, it's complicated. And that's what the athletic has written about with this is that basically agents, I think, have been quoted in the athletic of saying, hey, we have tried to propose swap deals, right? I'm sure they'd be very happy with that. But the reality is, is they're so complicated. It's so difficult to find players that teams value on another team that have a player that they want have a player that they want, then go to a group of terms that that player that they're going to be happy with in terms of that player. I mean, it's just, it's a mess like doing a transfers hard, doing a transfers harder than doing a trade in American sports. And then you basically just want to multiply that by two. It's, it's not easy to pull it off. Just very quickly, I have a clarifying question on this is where my ignorance on like traditional American sports is going to shine through. Joe, you said you said like you have to negotiate with the team and then with the player in like baseball or basketball, whatever, when they trade a player. Like, for example, when Brad Pitt walks into the office of the Oakland A's and says to Chris Pratt, you're traded to the Albert Kerkie isotopes or whatever team it was. Right. As he, that's how that film went. And is he still on the contract that he was with with the original team? It's just, yeah. Okay. It's also very pit like delivery also while we're noting. I thought I was top to bottom fantastic. Yeah. The contract goes with the player. And now I think that's you zeroed in on a gram. That's the key distinction between soccer transfers and not. It is interesting as an aside and then tell everyone your thoughts. The NWSL has sort of evolved a little bit in how it trades players and then get in kind of a first for an American sports league where that has to be player consent to be traded in the NWSL. I don't believe that means that there has to be a new contract agreed to a player, though there could be, I don't think that that disqualifies it. But if you're saying, hey Taylor, we're trading you to the Orlando pride. It's not like, great. Well, I'm packing my bags. It's not. I don't want to go there. Thanks. I'll go somewhere else. I'll stay here. That's different. And also MLS has this now with cashers, I believe, or where players do have to agree. I'm actually not 100% sure on that. But the NWSL certainly has that, but it's still not the same as soccer transfers in the rest of the world where the contract has to be ripped up and you go from there. So it is. It's a different landscape. Wasn't a Christian press was the famous example of that right where she's traded to Houston. She's like, now I'm going to Sweden. Oh, I don't remember. I don't remember that. Yeah, I think I tried. I forget who she was playing for, but they tried to trade to Sweden or to Houston. And she was like, no, I'd rather go play elsewhere. And she did because I think players do have a little bit more leverage on that side. Graham, that's where I thought you were leading into it when you said, like, American sports teams treat like bad players differently. Because I thought you were about to get into expiring contracts, which I think that's still like an asset in the NBA, but that used to be a thing where if you have like a player that you've like don't really want like you can you can basically like flip them and you're basically taking an expiring contract knowing that that player like you're going to pay them for the one year. Then they're done. They're off your books and you've cleared maybe more expensive player by swapping them like you can do all these different things because the contract is essentially what you are trading for. The contract is then connected to the player. So you're getting the player, but it's the contract that moves. And yeah, that is the other kind of fundamental difference to Joe's point. They have two negotiations and then if you're doing a swap deal, you have four negotiations. And I saw a quote from an agent there, there's something like every owner thinks they have the shiniest pony. That's a good example of how it's difficult to find teams that are going to kind of value their players the same such that a swap deal is possible. And even then you still have to agree to personal terms and the like. So it's just even more opportunity for things to fall apart. And you have a pony is important that it's shiny is that because it blinds the other jockeys, right? So you want to be as reflective as possible. So they have to squint and then they can't see. I mean, they're already small, so their eyes are small and then it just gets complicated. You had pond disturbance and you don't know the importance of shiny ponies. Come on, right? All of our stables had very healthy coated horses, of course. Of course, I just thought it was aesthetics. All of the tables. I don't know. I never visited them. Great, great reference to the Albuquerie isotopes. I just looked up. I was today years old when I realized there is a real minor league team called the Albuquerie isotopes. And they are named after the Simpsons episode, the helicopter home. Oh, we've talked about this at least five times on the show. There's no way that's, yeah, that's why grandma is about it. Ryan doesn't listen to us. No, Ryan has been on the show for this exact discussion. Every time he has it like it's a revelation, which is actually kind of beautiful. If you think about it, I'm going to stop trying your joy. I really like that. By the way, I did learn today about the Albuquerie isotopes. Did you know I'm going to do it? Yeah, that's a fun fact for us. Great. Thank you very much indeed for your question there. Let's do one more in this episode. It's from Pete Johnson. Who is the actual LeBron James of soccer? This, of course, referencing a, what was it? A pawn shop show or something? Correct. So the show is called pawn stars and someone came in with a Christian policy. I think it was an autographed Christian policy jersey. He was trying to contextualize like who this guy is and he goes, oh, it's like he's the LeBron James of soccer. And I became a huge meme because it's obviously ridiculous. I don't know that much about basketball, but am I right in thinking that LeBron and Michael Jordan are kind of like the top two certainly of the last century. There's debate, but I think you're right on the money. If it's Jordan LeBron, is it fair to say that's kind of like Maradona Messi? Is that the pairing? Is that what we go with here? That's, that's where my mind jumped first. It was cut and dry. LeBron is probably either the best or the second best. You could drop him down slightly more. It doesn't really matter. These are all arbitrary debates. But he's one of, what's that? You put him above Kobe. I keep for sure. Yeah, no doubt about it. Yeah. No, no, no question. Anyway, I would, I would very much have LeBron in that conversation as the one or two greatest basketball players ever. So I think you go with, well, who are those second players? I had, he's either Messi, Ronaldo, Pele or Maradona. I kind of think Messi is so transcendently great that you almost have to take him out because I don't think there's a true debate personally in soccer about who the greatest player is. And I know it depends on your generation as to whether you think that's true and basketball or not. But really, I think there is something of a debate and it's a more reasonable one in basketball than it is in soccer. So I almost want to take Messi out and say LeBron is one of Ronaldo, Pele or Maradona. I jumped the same way you jumped, Ryan, the way that after chatting about this yesterday in our household, the thing that was raised to me is, well, what about a stylistic comparison? Like what about how LeBron plays basketball? Is there a comparison for how someone plays soccer? I thought that was really interesting way to go with it. And I think this gets us to a really delightful place. We're in basketball LeBron, James of the course of his career has played every position. He's played point guard, he's played shooting guard, he's played small forward, power forward center. Now basketball's changed, but still he can do any job on the floor, basically. And he is, he's great at some things, but he's good at everything. Basically, he's never been the best three point shooter, but he's still pretty good at it. Right as one example. So I was thinking in soccer, who can play any position on the field? Who can do everything at a pretty good level and some things at a great level? And wouldn't you know where that led old Joe Lowry? Weston McKenney, that's the answer. It's not Christian policy. It never has been. It's Weston McKenney. I mean, he is the US player that can be popping up in any position who's done it all throughout his career that does. Most things at a pretty good level, a couple of things at a great level when you think about his aerial dominance, his ball winning. I think if you're looking for US player, that is LeBron James, it's McKenney. If it's not McKenney, it's probably like Fetty Valerde or a supercharged version of James Milner or something like that. It was all fall short because they haven't achieved in their own sport, what LeBron James has achieved in his. But I thought that was a fun way to look at it from a stylistic standpoint. I never, I never would have gone down that path. Okay. Tyler, any other past you took here? Oh, Graham had a stand up. I walk and Graham would go first because I think my, my answer is going to annoy some people. Go ahead, Graham. Uh oh. I think it has to be Chris Steller and Aldo. So I don't know all that much about basketball, but I do, I, I'm familiar with LeBron James. Like, I couldn't tell you the positioning plays and all that. That's better than that. Sorry. I'll be princess like Bruno Fernandez. I've been around to it wrong all this time. But I'm, I do know like enough about his career and there was a time when I remember when the calves went on that run when he went back to the calves against the gold state waters. I watched a whole bunch of that run. I guess I wasn't doing a whole lot in my life at that point to be watching those games through the night. But I'm now, of course. Yeah, of course. Yeah. But, um, I know enough about his career that I think it has to be Chris Steller and Aldo, an athlete who keeps going and going and going. His son is now playing professionally. Ronaldo was a galactical. When Ronaldo was playing professional. Yeah, hold on. What is that thing? Yeah, he's a, uh, Portugal unit 18s player. Wow. I did not know that. Keep going. Yeah. Uh, he's now playing Fernandez because, of course, he is, but yeah, his son is now playing professionally. Ronaldo was a galactical. It feels like the, the big three era of the Miami heat was as close to like Real Madrid as the NBA has, has ever had. Even down to like the all white kits. And then Ronaldo went back to sporting home in Manchester United in the same way that LeBron went back to, to Cleveland. You also have the, you also have like the Messi Ronaldo debate, which we've already discussed as like there's some similarities. I think the similarities are more with, uh, like LeBron and Jordan. It's more massive Ronaldo because even people who make the argument for LeBron James surely deep down know that it's Michael Jordan. And the same way that people Ronaldo people know it's Messi. So I think it has to be crushed out Ronaldo. That's a great Instagram. Extremely well thought out. I'm, I'm totally on board for that. It's why Lockheed. I like it. I got stuck on the goes back. That's a good point. Although LeBron goes back to Cleveland and wins a title. Cristiano goes back and almost had it. Oh, make things implode even worse. So for me, uh, lots of hype, like around turning pro, then justified the hype, then moved in one more silverware. Move back in one more. That's the tricky one. Then move to another club. One even more plus three time gold medalist plus like celebrity on their own with off you business pursuits and commercial endeavors. It's David Beckham. Oh, interesting. David Beckham, like comes in like as a youth, but has, has a good amount of hype behind him. Then kind of like hits the ground running and balling. I'm class 82 and whatnot. Uh, then like wins the champions league, then it like Beckham. He's like into your point, uh, Joe, like is good at a lot of things. And then exceptionally great at a few things in particular. Hugh grants David Beckham's right foot. David Beckham's left foot. Like that. Those are their key exports of England, apparently. But like, but then moves to the larger club in Ramadred, but then kind of continues the career from there and finds if not another level, then a way to kind of continue to compete and stay competitive and win titles and other leagues. So I think like that's the way I took it. But yes, I think seeing it through the lens of like that's probably more like modern LeBron and more recent LeBron where he is still playing, but is obviously not at his prime anymore at his peak anymore. And going back to like the primary peak moments, I do kind of forget how much of just like a force of nature. He was and how strong some of those teams were. So maybe that's where the Beckham one doesn't work as well. And it does end up being maybe one of like the bigger, more automatic goat nominees. For this to work, I need, I need an NBA finals for LeBron to have done at least nine different commercials for the breaks. Did he? I mean, he did close. He did like two or three during this World Cup. So yeah, it stands to reason. He's in the Nike commercial at the very least with Ronaldo. Yeah. As you were, as you were talking through the David Beckham comparison Taylor, I was thinking, who is the so LeBron did a space jam? Who's the sky remake, right? Yeah. So he and Jordan did the original, who's the soccer version of like that person? I can't think of anyone that's like moved into Hollywood other than Vinnie Jones, but I don't think Vinnie Jones works. This is the LeBron game. It will be called Palmer eventually. I think it's okay. Oh, yes. Oh, canton. Canton has goods. That's good. Franklin. Yeah. I've not seen him in anything. Is he had anything? He's in the, um, the co-cracking. The, oh, what's the, uh, stuck in memory then. No, Ben and it comes. The guy broke the Nigma code. I can't remember. The Franklin buff was in that one. It's a limitation game. Limitation game. Yeah. He was in that. Was a doctor. Was a doctor. Oh, there's soccer players in coyote versus acne. Let's find out. Okay. Let me, let me finish off with this question for you guys. Who is the Christian Policic of basketball? Oh, I don't know enough of the basketball. That's me either. Uh, I don't think I know enough of that basketball either. Probably like a, I mean, what Christian Policic, we know this, you guys know the structure of the NBA, right? Would he be, would he be a starter? He's like a starter on a good, but not great team. But he's not, he's not the, he's not the star of the team. So he's probably like a, I don't know, Dallas Maverick's small forward. Is there, how about, is there James Harden comparison there where it's like really good, but maybe not like the man and maybe he doesn't want to be a bad man. I think I would, I think Harden is probably better at his peak than Policics ever been at his like Harden was one of the greatest players in basketball for a little bit. Maybe, maybe Harden is Project Research Policic. And then since then, honestly, yeah, I'm taking that Taylor. I like the James Harden shot. That's cool. So it's going to come back with the, the beard. Yeah. It's a truly home the comparison. All of my initial ones were just mean. I really like. Like not intentionally. It was just like Sebastian Telfer. Is that, is that a fair one? No. Wow. Wow. I'm going to say, uh, Lamello ball because it's a basketball player I've heard of. Well done. Nice. What a contribution. I love me. Some Lamello hot take. I love me. Some Lamello. He's a famous around Charlotte for being very bad at driving and having very ostentatious cars. That sounds about right. There has to have been a New Yorker Nick that has a Christian Policy comparison. Because I think of like very good and not enough to get you over the top on your, on their own sort of. But like also can elevate a team. I don't mean that's a top. There has to have been a New Yorker Nick and there's somewhere who had that but not quite. Sure. Melo Graham Melo's a good chance. He's just, he's just too good. I think too good relative to his peers in Policic. I can be wrong. I always love Camilo Anthony. I went to next game once and every time he scored the, the announcer would go Camilo Anthony and a still a thing that made my brother sit each other occasionally. And we'll come back to check. I love that. I wonder if there's, if, if there's a compelling Patrick Ewing Christian Policic arc. Because I don't think they ever win with you, they don't win with Ewing there obviously. Like he, he is sort of like the guy that is seen as like he's going to be the one that will lead them to the promise land. And even with his supporting cast and LJ and the four point play and all that, he's still can't make it happen. I've, maybe he was even gone at that point or he's injured and that's the birth of the Wilson and Ewing effect where like you lose your market player. And maybe you end up looking a little bit better for it. And I, and I wondered that about Policic as well. So maybe that's the comparison I would draw. But I look forward to people who know a lot more about the NBA and NBA and a lot more about the recent history of the NBA. Hence my Sebastian Telfer and Patrick Ewing references. Yes. If you want to talk more about that, the listener, you can do it in our discord patreon.com slash total soccer show. Pete Johnson, thank you very much indeed. Boy, your question. Thank you to everybody who submitted them. If you'd like to do so, you can pop to that discord or you can go to totalsockershow.com slash questions. Taylor's going to say another thing. Here it comes. Who's the James Harden of the NHL? Let's talk about that. Alright, we're hitting our mark. Let's close this one up. Taylor Rockwell, thank you very much for everything you do. We appreciate you. Tamus Lonnie is the answer to that question. You're welcome, my friend, and my pleasure. Alright, Joe Larry, thank you very much, sir. Hey, thanks, Ryan. Grandmother, thank you very much indeed. Thank you, Ryan Bailey. And listen, thank you the most. We appreciate you. We'll be back on the feed very shortly indeed. But for now, bye! You've got a bad, you've got a bad, you've got a bad, you've got a bad tone.