The ghosts of Doha and the arrogance of Deschamps

Let’s cut the crap. Everyone is talking about France repeating as champions in 2026, but have you actually watched them play since they lost the final in Qatar to Argentina on penalties? They look like a band that played their greatest hit three times in a row and forgot how to write a new melody. Didier Deschamps is the AI model that was state-of-the-art in 2018 but now hallucinates tactics every time he faces a competent press.

We have to talk about the tactical rigidity. Deschamps loves his veterans more than a nostalgic boomer loves a vinyl record. While other federations are integrating dynamic youth, the French squad remains chained to a 4-3-3 that hasn't evolved since the Obama administration. When you rely on high-intensity transition play, you need legs, not just resumes. Relying on the same core group that carried the weight of two deep tournament runs is a recipe for a group stage implosion.

The midfield vacuum

Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante were the engines of the 2018 squad. That was eight years ago. If you look at the current midfield options, there is a lack of bite that makes opposing teams breathe a massive sigh of relief. Without that defensive cover, the backline is constantly exposed to quick attacks, turning every counter-press into a heart-attack moment for French supporters.

You can see the cracks emerging. During their recent qualifying stretch, they nearly dropped points to teams that should be getting steamrolled. It reminds me of when companies like Nous Research hype up their model evaluations, yet when you pull back the curtain, the real-world performance on complex tasks falls apart under pressure. Just because you have a loaded roster of talent on paper, it does not mean your coherence is guaranteed.

Look at the 2022 final. Sure, Kylian Mbappe dragged them back from the abyss with that hat-trick, finishing with a final score of 3-3, but the tactical bankruptcy before that substitution-heavy second half was painful. Deschamps got dominated for 75 minutes. If a manager gets out-coached that badly on the biggest stage, what makes you think he has figured it out for North America in 2026?

The Mbappe reliance trap

Everything in the French tent revolves around Mbappe. It has become a parody of itself. Opposing managers don’t need to scout the entire XI; they just need to double-team the left channel and force someone else to create. When the primary mechanism of your offense is 'give the ball to the fastest guy on the pitch and hope for a miracle,' you aren't playing professional football. You’re playing FIFA on beginner mode.

Even the Apple vs. OpenAI squabble feels more organized than the current French tactical setup. As recent industry shifts suggest, when you bet everything on one high-value asset without building a robust infrastructure around it, you inevitably fail when the competition evolves. France is relying on an aging infrastructure of ideas.

The defensive transition is even worse. In the tournament last cycle, they consistently struggled with fast-breaking wingers who exploited the high line. Unless they overhaul the center-back pairing, any team with a decent transition game will surgically dissect them. They have the pedigree to lift 1 trophy, but back-to-back glory requires humility, and this squad is drowning in ego.

The verdict: Expect a shock exit

People act like defending the crown is just about showing up in the right jersey. History disagrees. Brazil failed in 1966, Germany collapsed in 2018, and Italy’s descent after 2006 was legendary for all the wrong reasons. The mental fatigue of being the hunted is real. You don't have to look further than the volatility seen in the tech sector where top-tier names lose their edge overnight because they stop innovating.

The 2026 hosts are going to be aggressive, and the travel schedule across North America will punish a team that lacks depth. France is built for a controlled environment, not a logistical nightmare. If they don't find a new way to set up their midfield, they won't even make it past the quarter-finals. They are holding onto a 2022 strategy in a 2026 game. It’s over, folks.